Posts Tagged ‘Winning’

Kauto star wins 4 King George Chase

December 26th, 2009

I put the remainder of my money on Kauto Star at 1.59 today. It’s a small profit but takes my balance back over €9 and gives me a fighting chance to pull myself back into profit over the next few days.

I would have banked already my money on him had I not got burned by Celtic last week. That’s my only really bad loss so far on lucky.ie. I’ll need to revise my tactics for the new year as I have not been dedicating enough time to the site and finding the right bets. i was convinced Celtic had no chance of coming back from 2 goals down away in Europe but I took on a bet that offered no value and it’s not my normal tactics. Sean’s run away with it this month but I’ve shown that I can comeback before and will give it my best shot before the end of 2009. €25 is a reasonable target for now though.

running away with it

December 14th, 2009

Enda’s 3 month winning streak WILL be broken this month and in emphatic style. My new tactical approach to gambling is really paying off and right now my betfair balance stands at €77.34.

december 13th bets

Exactly 14 days ago, it stood at €20. So i’ve almost quadroupled it, with a bit of luck along the way but mainly thanks to discipline, structure and good judgement. My target for the month was to increase my balance by 5% per day, every day.

So far in December, i’ve increased it by almost 10% per day on average. It means i’m now just over €9 short of my target. When i reach my target i’ll be cashing out and banning myself from placing any more bets this month.

almost there

Snooker has proven to be a really strong area for me. In total, i’ve made €41.68 on it in the last 7 days (in the UK open). A large chunk of that was ‘accidentally’ won, but i’ve proven that wasn’t just a fluke by going on to win more with risky tactics.

In tonight’s final however, my tactics would have lost me everything had i been quicker to place a bet. Higgins needed a brown to win a frame and i placed €60 on him to win the frame at 1.02, meaning i’d win €1.20 if it went in. It was a straight forward brown which no professional should ever miss – i could have made it time and time again.

He did miss it much to my horror as my bet was just being processed as the ball bounced around in the jaws of the pocket. Luckily, because it was a ‘dead cert’, the odds shortened to 1.01, so my 1.02 bet wasn’t accepted, leaving me with literally a couple of seconds to cancel the bet… (otherwise it would have been automatically be accepted). Higgins eventually lost the frame meaning a 1.01 shot lost. Proving my tactics aren’t bulletproof.

But i knew that. Gambling is gambling. There are no certainties. The only thing that is certain is that you will lose if you keep gambling. But that’s what we’re trying to prove wrong of course here on lucky.ie.

Provided i hit my target this month, i’ll be in profit and placed hundreds of bets over a 5 month period – so too will Enda – which shows that you can defy the odds…

Small profit today

October 4th, 2009

I got off to a loosing start today. I put 10 cents on Leyton Baines to score first and Everton to beat Stoke 1-0. At odds of 66/1, I thought it was worth a punt if Baines was on free kick or penalty duty.

baines_everton_scorecast

Scorecasts are a bookies dream but the odds here were good enough to have a very small punt at big odds. If Baines scored I’d have laid 1-0 immediately. So I was off to a loosing start.

I didn’t want to be down money but there wasn’t much else about. I had a look about and seen Chelsea going 1-0 on 60 minutes. I expected this to be a tight game so I backed 1-0 at €2.

liverpool_chelsea_stamford_bridge

I then layed it to guarantee a small profit.

liverpool_chelsea_profit

I got in on time as Chelsea scored soon after. So I’m up 18 cents for today.

you’re not singing any more!

September 6th, 2009

I said yesterday i had a big money bet on Ireland & Scotland both winning. By pure coincidence Enda had bets on the same matches, so in a rare twist we were both hoping each others bets would come in :mrgreen:

My attacking philosophy has served me well up until now. I’ve been much more unpredictable than Enda which has been a good and bad thing but, at the end of the day, i won August’s battle and that was the only stat that really mattered last month.

Ok, on to the bet that will silence Enda’s fans… I placed €10 on Ireland / Scotland winning at odds of 3.77. So i won €27.70. HOWEVER, the reason i placed this bet was because i came across an offer that betfair were running; Stake a minimum of €10 on a multiple bet this weekend and get €5 back – win or lose.

multiple bets

That lured me in to the multiple market and even though i’d bet 50% of my balance, i’d only lose 25% of my balance had the bet gone wrong. So it was still a very risky move, but one that paid of big time!

So my balance is now €46.31 on betfair PLUS i’ll be getting another €5 added to my account this week because i took up this offer. So my balance will actually be over €51 thanks to this bet.

46.31

That’s more than my closing (and winning) balance for August, so i’ve got off to a flying start and have made Enda’s accumulator winnings look like peanuts :mrgreen: I also had the chance to lay off money once Ireland went 1-0 up (or even 2-1 up), but i was enjoying the match and didn’t want to get distracted betting so i didn’t lay anything off.

So right now, my balance is €46.31 and that’s what i’ll put it down as ‘officially’ but there will be €5 added to it this week :-) In other news, my first €1 accumulator bet with paddypower.com didn’t come in.

Italy won, Spain won, but Poland could only draw meaning i was close, but not close enough… and that’s the thing with accumulators – there’s just so many different possibilities and outcomes and even if you get the majority of them right, it only takes a minority of your selections to fail and ruin everything. So i lost €1 there, but i think i’ll go easy on myself for that ;-)

I’ll now have a €27+ cushion over Enda (once i get my €5 from betfair) after one day of betting, so if ever we’re gonna see Enda attack with force, it’s now. With 24 days left in september, he’ll need over €1 profit per day and have to hope i lose money too. So it’s looking good for me :twisted:

I won’t be shutting up shop for the month, but i will be taking it easy now i have such a huge cushion. With these new rules, i have to risk at least €4 on accumulators so i’ll try to get them out of the way as early as possible.

Going with my predictions

August 30th, 2009

I’ve been very very quiet on the site all week. Sean has been egging me on to bet, but I found it hard to find a low risk strategy that would give me a high reward. I’ve said I was the underdog and I’m still behind, but I’ve passed the €50 mark for the first time and I’m within touching distance now.

luckydotie_balance_enda_30th_august

If I lost this bet today I would have been in trouble. I’ve threatened to go for a monster bet and had an even money shot in mind but decided against it. It would be ridiculous to blow my €30 profit just to beat Sean. I can live with being second as long as I’m in profit, I’m not sure he can :) Who’s to say that with another winning bet tomorrow though that I can’t bypass Sean?

Here’s my selection for today:

results_man_city_aston_villa_everton_treble

I placed a multiple bet on the last 3 selections in yesterday’s tips (Man City, Everton and Aston Villa, all to win). I’ve been lucky as Everton got an injury time penalty but you need luck and I’ve had my fair share over the last few weeks. Unfortunately you cannot see a screenshot of a multiple bet in Betfair after it’s been settled (so just a note for next time to take a screenshot when I place the bet). After the first two results came in I layed Villa in separate bet shortly after half time at 1.27.

multiple_bet_man_city_villa_everton

This lost me 1.62 of my profit but it insured I’d be up no matter what and I wasn’t taking the risk on a 3 way bet. Even if Fulham came back to snatch victory, with my €6 lay I’d have been up over €3. I’ve said before that “accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off” so I’m chuffed with today’s result! I’m 100% honest when I say that I was actually not going to bother betting this weekend and just be happy with second place and doubling my money! However, now that I’m within touching distance of Sean I will be going for it tomorrow. I think the only time that I really reacted to his bets this month was placing a massive €30 on Usain Bolt. I profited about €3 on this bet but it was silly to risk my entire kitty too. Since then I’ve decided to become much more disciplined and I’ve been consistently winning since. I still have a massive mountain to climb but I’m a lot closer than I was this morning. Sean has been cautious since going way ahead of me and rightly so. It’s not like he hasn’t went for it all month so he deserved the break. He won’t ‘have’ to bet tomorrow but as he wont know what I’m up to all day (and I’ll be in the blind as to what he’s up to also), he’d be foolish to assume I won’t be going for broke. Sean has the advantage of being more cautious with his selections tomorrow, were I’ll have to take a more risky approach. I’m sure you’d agree after watching us over the last month that this is a real turnaround in styles. Sean doesn’t have to be cautious though and he may take a big risk to put it beyond me even if I win big tomorrow. We have completely contrasting styles and it makes it interesting to see if we change styles on the final day to seal the deal. I have a monetary target in mind for tomorrow and it’s enough above Sean’s current balance that even if he does win it’ll have to be a decent amount. Hopefully my luck continues and I can make a decent stab at it anyway. I’ll be posting at around 11.45 tomorrow night with my final balance. I have to say, I’m very very surprised that we’re both sitting here on a balance of more than €50 with one day to go. Until one or both of us can consistently profit over a six month period, it would be stupid to say that we are winning punters just yet.

August 2009 – Wk4 Review – Enda

August 23rd, 2009

I began the week with a loosing bet on the Premier League champions Manchester United who lost 1-0 away to Burnley. This was a brilliant result for Burnley and a bad start to the week for me.

Incidentally, my first winning bet of the week was on another United game, when they won 5-0 away to Wigan. I put €4.90 on United and layed the bet of at odds of 1/10 to guarantee a profit. I made some predictions on the Premier League games and this was one that I followed through on with a bet. On the same day, I dropped 10 cents on another attempt to back small and lay big to secure a big profit.

I followed my success on United with a bet on Cardiff city at home to Bristol City. Again, I used a cautious approach and layed the bet off at lower odds after Cardiff took the lead. I won €1.68 here and this got me back to a decent level of profit for the week. At this stage I was up €1.90 and I was happy that I was able to come back from my loss on United earlier in the week.

My final bet of the week came on a game in the German Bundesliga. I backed Hamburg away to Wolfburg at odds of 4.3. Hamburg went 2-0 after 7 minutes and I was able to guarantee a win of at least €0.96. Hamburg won the game though, and I won €3 on this game.

Here’s my bets for the week:
Loosing €2 on United
Getting back on level terms by backing United to win
Hitting profit for the first time by backing Cardiff
€3 win on German Bundesliga match

bets_review_week4

Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €37.00
Bet this week: €14.14
Bet this month: €77.04
Current Balance: €41.57
Profit/Loss (week): €4.57 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €21.57 profit

€4.57 might not be a massive win but it’s 32% profit on my stake for the week. Considering I layed off all my winning bets, my return on investment could have been much higher. Will this stop me laying off? Absolutely not, if I could profit 32% every week I’d be very very happy to lay off every bet. My low risk, cautious strategy has paid off for the 3rd week in a row. Sean is willing to put a lot more of his kitty on the line and is probably the favourite to win at this stage, but I’ve now doubled my €20 bankroll for the month so far and I’ll be continuing with this approach this week.

Another good value bet wins €3

August 23rd, 2009

Today has been a good day for me. I’m sure there’s no better feeling for any gambler knowing you’ve secured a win. I got that feeling after 9 minutes of the Wolfsburg – Hamburg game today.

wolfsburg_hamburg_2nil_after nine_minutes

Hamburg had to be backed at 4.3! They finished 5th in the Bundesliga last year, only 8 points behind the champions Wolfsburg and have won their last two games 4-1 and 5-1. This bet offered great value. I had €1.72 on Hamburg at 4.3 and layed them off at even money for €2.68 leaving me a guaranteed profit of €0.96 for a Wolfsburg win or the draw, or €3 if Hamburg go on to win.

hamburg_wolfsburg_betting_profit

Again, I’ve cut in to my profits but I’m playing safe and I’ve picked up another win that takes me just below or just over the €40 mark. I prepared this post as soon as Hamburg went 2-0 but Wolfburg got back to 2-2 in the game, so it was a good lay of Hamburg. Off course I could have layed Hamburg at 1.23 at one stage and guaranteed a bigger profit but I made rules for myself and I stick to them. There’s no point saying what if, I guaranteed myself another €0.96 profit and Hamburg have just gone in to the lead again so hopefully it’s €3 profit on this one. Either way, I’m happy! I’m still the big underdog here and expect Sean to come bouncing back with a big bet later.

* Update – Hamburg scored on 90 minutes, 4-2 Hamburg :)

Lost €16.62 today

August 20th, 2009

Not quite as bad as sunday, but still a heavy loss today. Before Enda gets too excited i did manage to win €9.60 so i suffered an overall loss of just €8.

bets 20th aug

It started off well. I banked on usain bolt winning his 200m semi final and he did. I won €5. Then wheels came off…

I had €3 riding on a 100m womens hurdles final but lost it…

When i tuned in to the Burnley v Man Utd match. Burnley were 1-0 up and i backed utd with €2.

I then layed the 1-0 at half time with €2 at 6.6, meaning i’d lose €11.20 if it stayed 1-0. It did. And i lost €11.20 plus the €2 i’d backed Utd with. Massive upset, utd could and should have scored and on any other day they would have done. It was just ‘one of those days’.

So i was down €10.20 for the day which was a pretty big loss. I decided to gamble to win some of it back. I banked on under 4.5 goals in a liverpool match (they were leading 3-0 with about 5 minutes to go). It finished 4-0 so that won me €1.62.

Then i banked on Nadal to beat Seppi in a second round tennis match. He did and i won €1.50.

So in total today, i won €8.16 today, lost €15.20.

My balance goes down to €30.29, but i’m feeling confident now of running away with this August competition. I’m not worried about losing money – i’ve proven time and time again this month that i can bounce back from any amount of losses so expect me to rise above Enda again sooner rather than later ;-)

anything you can do, i can do better!

August 10th, 2009

I’ve stayed very quiet over the past couple of days. One reason for that is because  i was away in Dublin yesterday so i didn’t place any bets. Another reason is that i was preparing some big bets today. And it was a mixed day, but i ended up in profit, which is becoming an all too familiar story now ;-)

aug 9th bets

Twice today i was left with a balance of less than €2, so i was going in for the kill like i promised. If i’m honest, i expected to crush Enda today, so i’m shocked that Enda called it right in the Chelsea match and won big. Fair play to him – a very clever lay with low risk ;-)

He’ll know though like myself, that you never write Man Utd off… whether there’s 3 minutes left or 3 seconds left… unlike enda though, i didn’t try to pull out or hedge my bet completely. I had backed a draw and stuck €3 on it @ odds of 3.20… but Chelsea were 2-1 going in to injury time. I did place a few small bets as the match was coming to and end to try and limit my losses, but i kept the faith overall and was prepared to lose money…. and it paid off big time… the match finished 2-2. So massive €8.80 profit there.

HOWEVER, i lost €4 on an ipswich town match earlier in the day. I also lost small bets during the community shield match, plus i gambled and lost on the penalty shoot out (i lost €2 by backing a utd win – heart ruling head to be honest there!)

So after the match had finished, i had a balance of €30.03 thinking that was fantastic (not knowing Enda had a balance of €30.77).

The real victory though, for me, came in the golf, i was glued to the finish and ended up banking on tiger – meaning all my funds were resting on himself or Harrington winning (if harrington had won i’d have gone back to about €28). At this stage i still didn’t know Enda had a balance over €30 but i was determined to crush him today and get as far as possible away from him.

bridgestone invitational

Tiger won and i’m now sitting on a whopping balance of €37.39…

I’m sure Enda won’t be expecting it… he’ll be quietly confident he’s taken a lead with his big win earlier today. Although he’s risked less and could sleep easier than i could, my strategy has paid off once again and i reclaim my throne as no.1 ;-)

I’m now €6.62 ahead of Enda, so despite his big win, nothing has changed really – he’ll be incredibly frustrated that he’s gone past the €30 mark yet still remains a good bit adrift. But, we’ve both gone past the €30 mark in just over a week which is an incredible achievement when you think about it. At this rate, we should both be capable of hitting the €50 mark every month :mrgreen:

Win in LA Championship Tennis

August 6th, 2009

I had a ‘massive’ bet by my standards of €2.98 today. Jeez I’ve lost the run of myself all together! I was looking at a 3rd round ladies tennis match in the LA Championship between Anna Chakvetadze (world ranking 54) and Agnieszka Radwanska (world ranking 13). I saw that Radwanska was 4-1 up in the first set and was trading pretty low at 1.17, I had a look at the form of both players and although Chakvetadze was 2-0 up in the previous head to heads between these two, Radwanska has had a considerably better run over the last 5 tournaments, reaching the Quarter Finals of Wimbledon during this period. I backed Radwanska to win the match and profited €0.51. I came through with a win here but in hindsight I might have been a bit hasty here and could have got better odds on Radwanska, a 17% return wasn’t brilliant and if I’d have waited another few minutes I could have nearly doubled this as the match went back to 4-4 games each in the same set. Ah well, a win is a win and I’ll try not to rush in as much next time.

betfair_tennis_la_open_060809

On top of this I had another sneaky bet of 18 cents at big odds (which I’ll come back to later along with my first bet this week of 15c). Sean has been pretty open with his bets and publicly came out yesterday and nearly convinced me to lay Celtic with this post, but I’d prefer to keep stum with the kind of bets I’ve been looking at. To abide by the rules of the competition, I’ll have to disclose them though when the market is in play or finished up. Both bets are still in play but if I honest I’m not convinced I’ll get much play out of either. Time will tell! So that’s €3.16 bet today with a profit of 30 cents, it was 33 cents but Betfair took 3 cents commission and I have 2 bets currently in play. Check out my stats for August on the top right of the page to see how my running totals are looking.

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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