Posts Tagged ‘win’

closing in on my target

December 11th, 2009

At the start of the month i set myself a target of changing €20 on betfair in to €86.44.

The biggest overall winning balance so far on lucky.ie has been €74.16, so if i can hit my target, i’ll have well and truely smashed Enda’s record. So far, my plan is working beautifully.

It requires nerves of steel but i’ve always been happy to take on big bets. In the last few days, the riskiest odds i’ve taken on have been 1.31 and i stuck €30 on that. It was on over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona -v- Dinamo Kiev match. I placed that bet when the match was 1-1 in the first half.

Easy money i thought because Kiev had to win by 3 goals to qualify for the champions league knock out stages and Barcelona are just Barcelona – they can’t play any other way than all out attack. But the game was really poor. Kiev were happy with a draw and Barcelona were happy just to knock it about and treat the match as a training session. So i was left sweating on this right up until the last 5 minutes until Messi scored a free kick.

That won me €9.30 but more importantly saved me from losing €30 :smile: Since then, i’ve been placing sensible bets at lower odds and they’re all coming in. Snooker mainly. One of these days i’ll get burned on snooker because the BBC keep changing schedules and cutting off midway through frames which means i lose my ability to predict how shots will go and am just left to make decisions based purely on the fluctuating odds.

Anyway, my new betfair balance is €64.95.

masterclass betting

Add my paddypower balance of €5.12 to that and it means i now have an overall balance of €70.07.

betting tactics

So i’m on course to hit my target of €86.44 on betfair and if all goes to plan i could well end the month with a balance of €90+. The stakes are very high now though. I’m reluctant to bet 100% of my balance on any one event, but i have to if i’m to hit my target whilst minimising the risk of losing. I look like a genius if i pull it off and everything goes to plan. If i bet my entire balance on a 1.01 shot that loses, then i look like a complete idiot :mrgreen:

Still, fortune favours the brave and i’m determined to crush Enda this month and lay down a marker for 2010.

pure luck

December 9th, 2009

Sticking to my new tactical approach, i tried placing several bets at 1.02, 1.03 today on snooker. I was just too slow placing them though and missed them.

So i thought i’d be clever and then placed a big €30 bet at 1.01 on Ronnie O Sullivan to win the 4th frame in his match against Peter Ebdon. I didn’t realise that when i confirmed the bet, it would be accepted at current odds (of 1.61), not at my odds (which were 1.01).

I thought that if i placed a bet at 1.01, the bet would be accepted if the odds fell to 1.01. If they didn’t fall to that, i’d get my money back. But i quickly learned that’s not how betfair works!!! I hit ‘confirm’ and the bet was accepted at odds of 1.61 – so the bet was accepted before the frame had started!! Disaster!

I didn’t have the liquidity to back out of it (as i’d place €30 of my €31 balance on this bet) and so had to watch from behind my fingers as the frame developed. I’d started this post before i knew the outcome of the frame because i suspected i’d lose – it would be typical.

O Sullivan won the first 3 frames of the match and was cruising, but it would have been typical if he’d lost the 4th frame just when i’d placed a banker bet on him (by accident). At one stage, Ebdon was about 1.25 to win the frame and i thought i was screwed… but thanks to honest sportsmanship (Ebdon called foul as he hit a red when leaning despite the fact nobody seen it) O Sullivan eventually went on to win.

dec 8th bets

So it means i profited by a huge €18+ on that frame alone which of course i’ll take all the credit for :mrgreen: I can say that i had anticipated O Sullivan winning, so that’s why i backed him rather than Ebdon but really, it was pure luck and i’m just relieved not to have lost anything – my tactics had been working superbly up until then and for a while it looked like i’d just shot myself in the foot and undone all my hard work with one lapse of concentration.
So a valuable lesson learned folks – you can only back at the current odds and can’t schedule bets below them.

I went on to place a few more bets. Won some, lost some and end the day with a betfair balance of €49.77. I do have to share a few tips though… in the lower league matches that were in play tonight i was looking for surefire wins.

So i was looking at live scores and searching for any side that was 2 goals up approaching injury time. I found a few of them and surprisingly, i found two teams that were 2 goals to the good available to back at 1.01 going in to injury time.

It’s hard to call 1.01 ‘value’ but in my opinion, that’s fantastic value. The chances of a side scoring two goals in injury time to draw level are extremely slim. Statistically, a 1.01 shot means it happens 1 in 100 times but i’d guess it happens maybe 1 in 1000 times, if even that.

I look at it as immediate 1% interest. It’s the closest thing to a sure win you’ll get in gambling. Place 100 of them in a month and you’ve just doubled your balance (assuming you win!). The law of averages will eventually catch you out once in a while but provided you’re not betting blindly on 1.01 shots, you shouldn’t get stung too often. I also noticed several value 1.02, 1.03 bets too. All in play and it’s really a case of speed and timing.

I did venture away from my new tactics today, but that was only for a bit of fun – because i was still buzzing from my fluke win earlier in the day :smile: I could probably batten down the hatches now and do ‘an Enda’ but i’m determined to go the whole hog and hit my target of €86.44 this month. Whilst i’ve probably done enough to win, i’m eager to end 2009 in style and beat Enda by as much as possible :smile:

mother of all comebacks?

November 11th, 2009

In the last 4 days, i won back everything i lost on the liverpool match and went past the €40 mark. I then gambled about €10 of it, lost it and placed a banker bet on John and Edward not being in the bottom two last week.

It was always my intention to do that as i believed they were one of the best supported acts. Anyway, they did end up in the bottom two so i lost my entire bank….

Bar 20c. My balance in betfair on Sunday evening was 20c. You might think 20c is nothing, but i’ve managed to turn it in to €4.20 :mrgreen:

John and Edward were about 1.1 to go when it was announced they were in the bottom two on the x factor. Last week i played a similar bet and layed against the favourite to go – i did the same this time around and layed John and Edward going with my entire 20c.

They ended up staying to my delighted which meant i profitted by €2. On Monday evening, i then placed that €2 on the liverpool / birmingham match finishing 2-2. I got odds of 2-1 with 10 minutes to go and it was 2-2 at the time, so i thought it was decent value.

The match did indeed finish 2-2 so my balance is now €4.17. A remarkably comeback from just 20c and if i can go on to get back in to profit (above €20), it’ll be the ultimate great escape…

Anyway, check out the bets i placed and lost / won over the past few days…

sean comeback 2

sean comeback 1

I had placed €4 in to betfair games before the liverpool match so that’s why my account starts off as €13.40 – really it was €17.40. I then transferred the €4 back in to my account and you can see that in the first image…

Anyway, the mother of all comebacks is now on the cards…

grand prix demons put to bed

November 1st, 2009

Fresh off the back of an accumulator win yesterday, i was feeling confident about November, despite ending October in the red for the first time.

I blew my entire €20 betfair kitty on the brazilian grand prix in mid october, so in typical aggressive fashion, i bet big on today’s grand prix – determined to put my grand prix demons to bed. And i did. I bet on vettel to win when he was second behind Hamilton early on at about 1.9-ish.

I stuck €15 on him and then layed it off at about 1.6, knowing i’d claimg an easy €5 profit should vettel have won. As the race progressed it became clear vettel would walk it barring a stupid mistake on his part.

grand prix win

So i bet on him claiming fastest lap too (at the time he had already set the fastest lap). I stuck €5 on that at 1.64 and then layed it off at 1.5.

In total, i’ve claimed over €5 profit today and stuck the knife in to Enda on day one. Normal service has resumed :twisted:

My balance for November now stands at over €30 and it’s game on. Beat Enda this month and it’s 2-2 in the monthly head to head battles. That would set up December as a 2009 lucky.ie title decider…

€70 mark in my sights

September 11th, 2009

As you should know by now, when i lose money, i tend to win it back + more on top of it.

german womens

Yesterday i turned to womens football again – one of my favourite bets is to lay the 0-0 half time score or slightly better value is usually laying the draw at half time.

So after about 10 minutes in to the England – Germany final, i layed the draw. The first half finished 2-1 to Germany and in total, i made over €7 on it :smile:

Easy money. I had risked €15 though to get that €7, but it was still a clever bet as women’s football is usually a goal fest – it’s pretty rare a match will finish 0-0. The Germany England match finished 6-2.

Anyway, that women’s euro championship is now over so i have to start betting on the usual stuff now – premier league, tennis, golf etc.. with a balance of €67.61, the pressure is still all on Enda and i now have the opportunity to go for triple figures for the month if i’m feeling adventurous!

It’s all over for september!

September 7th, 2009

I’ve started September all guns blazing and destroyed Enda in these opening few days. He’s gonna need a miracle to get back in to it this month.

Freeze !!!
Creative Commons License photo credit: Philippe sergent

Feeling invincible, i stuck €10 on Harrington to win the Deutsche Bank Championship when he was tied at 15 under for the lead. As soon as i placed that bet, his odds tumbled and kept going out and within a few minutes he was down to 13 under and 2 shots off the pace… that quickly chopped me back down to size and reality…

I could have accepted a €10 loss – i could afford it after all… but i didn’t want to :-) Instead, i attacked and got more involved. I placed €6 on Stricker to win which would net me €11.76. Everyone was tussling at the top for no.1 spot and i then backed Stricker again with €5 at 2.52, meaning i’d net another €7.60 profit.

golf sean

So at this stage, i’d bet a total of €21 on either Stricker or Harrington winning (and harrington was out of it – or so i thought). Harrington mounted a small comeback but eventually fell off and Stricker kept cool to seal victory by 1 shot on the last hole.

So it means i bagged €9.36 profit AFTER i’d lost my €10 on Harrington :mrgreen: My betfair balance is now €57.57, with €5 still to be added from a special offer. I now go a massive €33.78 clear of Enda and that will stretch to €38.78 later in the week.

My balance now tops €60 and i’ve set a new all time record balance on lucky.ie – although there’s still over 3 weeks left in September, i’m walking up the steps and have one hand on the ‘player of the month’ trophy for September.

So far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest Enda can mount a comeback of this magnitude. It’s up to him now to prove us doubters wrong :smile:

So first day over and done with, and things ran smoothly for me. Now i have to do it all over again tomorrow with, get this, a 3 hour gap between classes :evil: I’m all for breaks and stuff, but that’s madness. 3 hours of doing nothing only wanting the time to tick by :roll: This is when i start to regret not living on/near campus :razz:

low risk accumulator comes in

September 7th, 2009

Yesterday i placed a very low risk accumulator on tennis. Serena Williams, Rafael Nadal and Serena / Venus doubles (all up against huge underdogs). They all won which means i profited 17c on my €1 stake.

Accumulators are not an area where i feel i can do damage, but i HAVE to place 5 per month on paddypower because of our new rule changes so i’d imagine i’ll be sticking to the ‘low risk’ strategy from now on.

Last month, i was in pole position for the majority of the month and i’m in an even stronger position this month. Once i get my €5 back from a betfair offer i took up, i’ll be a massive €29 clear of Enda – an unprecedented lead.

Although i’ve only been betting for just over a month, i’ve learned a lot and now that i have this lead, i won’t be going hammer and tongs for more big profit – i’ll be doing my best to defend what i have and slowly gather profit with low risk, low value bets.

Ready? Set? Go?
Creative Commons License photo credit: A. Wong Photography

Sean smashes €55 mark

August 26th, 2009

Last night, Liverpool went 1-0 down after about half an hour in their match so on about 37 minutes i layed the 0-1 half time score for 1.33. I stuck €5 on it, meaning i’d lose about €1.65 if another goal didn’t go in. (i wouldn’t have taken this bet on but for the fact i had an €8+ cushion over Enda).

Villa scored with the last kick of the second half to make it 0-2 and gift me €5 :-)

Gerrard and Torres in Bangkok
Creative Commons License photo credit: anothersaab

My balance stood at €54.91 which i was frustrated at. I wanted to get past the €55 mark so i had a look around and backed over 1.5 goals in the real madrid / rosenborg friendly match. Stuck €2 on it at 1.1, so i profited 20c.

However, once liverpool pulled one back, i layed against aston villa who immediately won a penalty and went 3-1 up and held on for victory, so i lost over €4 on that lay. My balance went back to €50.90. Decision time – i’d got a taste of €55 and wanted to reach it just to finish Enda off :-)

I took on another lay. Madrid were 3-0 up at half time so i layed €5 on under 4.5 goals at 3.6, meaning i’d lose €13 if this bet went wrong. It did. The match finished 4-0, so my balance was shot back down to €37.90.

Now at this stage i was really angry with myself… i’d blown an €8+ lead and fallen back €4 behind Enda. “Why didn’t i just not bet?” i asked myself. This was shooting myself in the foot…

So i took another big decision today and went back to womens football – an area where i had huge success yesterday. I stuck with the same tactics again. I layed the 0-0 half time draw in an England / Italy match and i layed the draw at half time.

England won the first half 1-0 which meant i was back in business and touching the €50 mark again :-) However, England had a woman sent off just before half time, yet they were odds on to win.

Italy were 10.5 for the win at half time, so i stuck €1 on that. Italy ended up winning the match 2-1, so i won another €6.50 (i layed some of it off after they equalised). So the end result is that i’m now sitting on a balance of €55.37. Hammer blow to Enda’s chances of victory this month.

aug 25th bets
My attacking approach has paid off again and i now have a €13.80 cushion over Enda. I’m also placing a temporary BAN on myself betting until i see evidence that Enda is mounting a comeback, just to put every ounce of pressure on Enda’s shoulders…

Have fun trying to catch up Enda :-) I’ll be watching you from the finish line :twisted:

Sean smashes €50 mark

August 24th, 2009

The heat has now been turned up to the max on Enda. The €50 mark has been smashed, i’ve opened up a big €8.59 gap on Enda and there’s just 7 days left for Enda to turn things around.

Never one to accept defeat, i was determined to end my run of unlucky lays. I lost big on several occassions last week by laying results which seemed pretty unlikely. So what do i do this week? Play the exact same high risk lays.

Today, i placed three big lays and all 3 worked in my favour, netting me €11.50 in profit. I was betting on womens football. I layed a 0-0 half time scoreline plus a half time draw in the Germany v Norway match.

womens football bets 23rd august

Germany won the first half 1-0 which meant i won both of my lays. The match looked open, so i layed the 1-0 full time score and won another €2 as the match finished 4-0 (3 late goals).

So a total of €11.50 profit on the one football match today and that shoots me in to the lead again and lumps all the pressure on Enda.

My balance is now standing at an incredible €50.16. That’s a 150%+ profit on my starting balance of €20. Enda is really going to have to go for it now…

I’ve already got one hand on August’s Lucky.ie ‘player of the month’ crown and Enda is now forced in to making more bets. Losing money is not an option at this stage for him, so every single bet he places will be coupled with immense pressure.

The stage is now yours Enda… show us what you’re made of :twisted:

successful rescue yet again

August 23rd, 2009

I’ve a habit of losing money, then winning more instantly. It happened again yesterday.

aug 22nd bets

I backed Utd to beat wigan… €10 on odds of 1.65. I won €6.50. However…. i also layed against 9 corners or less. There was 8 in the match, meaning i lost €11.25.

So overall, i was down €4.75 for the day. I won €1.50 on a falkirk / hibs scottish match and i was feeling confident again so i backed over 2.5 goals in an ipswich / west brom match. At half time, it was 1-1 and i decided to stick with my bet.

The match finished 1-1 so now i was in trouble. In total, i’d lost €8.50. I turned to tennis.

Andy Murray went in as favourite against Roger Federer in their Cincinnati Masters match. Rather strange i thought, but i wasn’t complaining as i was confident federer would take him easily. He did… Federer won in straight sets.

In total, i backed federer with €10 at 2.08 and another €5 at 1.96. After he won the first set, i layed off a bit to profit a total of €11.25.

So that left me at +€2.75 for the day. My balance is now €37.43. It isn’t enough to protect my no.1 spot though.

Enda is now past the €40 mark for the first time. It’s incredible how he’s managed to win so much by betting so little. I’ll be expecting to pull away from him this week though. This will be our last full week in august, so we’ll both have to go for it and keep a close eye on each other’s progress. At the minute, it’s looking like a balance of €50+ will be required to seal victory, but that can all change with one big win or loss.

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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