The only bet i placed this week was an accumulator bet yesterday. Out of the 3 teams i backed, Madrid and Spurs won easily as i’d predicted, but Valencia only drew 2-2 with Athletico Madrid, costing me my €1 stake.
So my balance now goes down to €73.91. I’m still over €20 clear of Enda with just 3 days left in September. I do still have to place another €1 accumulator with paddypower before the month ends (to comply with our own rules).
It’s unlikely i’ll be placing any more bets – i’m confident my end total of €70+ will seal victory.
Overall for the week though I’ve profited with my Paddy Power treble on Liverpool, Limavady and Sunderland so a nice profit this week. I’m finding it hard to get time to post on here but hopefully I get busy next weekend and also get in early with a few bets and possibly bet my entire kitty for the weekend.
I’ll need to address the issue of finding time to post on here as I want to contiunue working on this site. Placing the bets is easy. Selecting the bets and finding the time to post them on here is the tough bit
I began the week with a loosing bet on the Premier League champions Manchester United who lost 1-0 away to Burnley. This was a brilliant result for Burnley and a bad start to the week for me.
Incidentally, my first winning bet of the week was on another United game, when they won 5-0 away to Wigan. I put €4.90 on United and layed the bet of at odds of 1/10 to guarantee a profit. I made some predictions on the Premier League games and this was one that I followed through on with a bet. On the same day, I dropped 10 cents on another attempt to back small and lay big to secure a big profit.
I followed my success on United with a bet on Cardiff city at home to Bristol City. Again, I used a cautious approach and layed the bet off at lower odds after Cardiff took the lead. I won €1.68 here and this got me back to a decent level of profit for the week. At this stage I was up €1.90 and I was happy that I was able to come back from my loss on United earlier in the week.
My final bet of the week came on a game in the German Bundesliga. I backed Hamburg away to Wolfburg at odds of 4.3. Hamburg went 2-0 after 7 minutes and I was able to guarantee a win of at least €0.96. Hamburg won the game though, and I won €3 on this game.
Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €37.00
Bet this week: €14.14
Bet this month: €77.04
Current Balance: €41.57
Profit/Loss (week): €4.57 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €21.57 profit
€4.57 might not be a massive win but it’s 32% profit on my stake for the week. Considering I layed off all my winning bets, my return on investment could have been much higher. Will this stop me laying off? Absolutely not, if I could profit 32% every week I’d be very very happy to lay off every bet. My low risk, cautious strategy has paid off for the 3rd week in a row. Sean is willing to put a lot more of his kitty on the line and is probably the favourite to win at this stage, but I’ve now doubled my €20 bankroll for the month so far and I’ll be continuing with this approach this week.
I was away in Liverpool for the week and I’m only getting time to post about my bets for the week and review last week now. Sorry about the delay!
I had three football bets this week, all singles and Sean is very very lucky that I didn’t go for a treble that I really fancied. But accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off. As far as I can remember, the big four only all won in the same weekend, twice last season. It’s a rare occurence to pull off an accumulator even if you’re going for the so called sure things!
Anyway, the treble that I was going to do Stoke, Fulham and Sunderland. I really thought Sunderland had a great chance this weekend but Bolton are a strong side so I decided against it. Ah well, I thought it was the correct decision not to go for it and lose €2 from my kitty, I was wrong, I’m over it!
The three single bets that I did were as follows:
Fulham to win away at Portsmouth, I tipped this one on Saturday and although Fulham bagged a very lucky goal through a wicked Robbie Earnshaw deflection off a Clint Dempsey shot, for me this was thee value bet of the opening day of the premiership! I’ve been waiting to get my money on this one for the past 2 weeks. Fulham’s away form was dismal last year but they’ve had a good pre-season in their away matches and have been scoring goals. Portsmouth are a weakened squad having let go 8 players over the Summer, There also seems to be unrest with whatever players are left at the club. I had to get on this one. I did green out and layed Fulham for €10 at 1.10 (before the match) so I gave away €1.00 of my potential winnings of €5.10. Still no need to get greedy and €4.10 will do me every time, stress free. If Portsmouth equalise with a late goal I’m up €7.33 so it’s worth taking the €1 hit and greening out.
Stoke at home to Burnley. At even money I had to be on Stoke here and 2-0 up at half time was good enough for me. A €2 stake on Stoke at even money netted me a return of €4.00 and a net profit of €1.90 after Betfair took their commission.
Shelbourne away to Finn Harps. Shelbourne are pushing the top of the table and I fancied them at Finn Park. They went ahead half way through the second half but I was unfortunate that Finn Harps equalised with an 88th minute penalty. Some you win, some you lose. I lost €2 euro here, but my other bets on the Premier League were already home and dry so it was work the risk!
Next up was My Monster Bet of €30.00
This deserves a seperate post really but as I’m reviewing my week it’ll have to go in here. I seen Sean pulling away yesterday and I decided I needed to close the gap a bit if I seen the opportunity. I needed a good bet to stop him getting too far ahead. At this stage, I had a feeling he was on Tiger in the golf and thought that he might further increase his balance past the €40.00 mark that he hit yesterday.
I risked nearly my entire bankroll on what I think is the nearest thing to free money available in sports betting. You will get burned on bets like this eventually, but this man is thee ultimate athlete and I had to go for it!
Cometh the hour cometh the Bolt! Enter Mr. Usain Bolt in the 2009 100 metres sprint world championship in Berlin. I watched it and he’s standing on the line saying “I’m ready, Are you ready? Let’s Go!” and Tyson Gaye, his biggest competition is standing beside him in a ball of nerves!
He proved my bet to be the right move, and crushed the field by 2 metres with a new world record of 9.58 seconds! I got my bet on and I’m not afraid to admit my fear, and that I layed it back off too. I backed him at 1.10 for a 10% profit and layed him of at 1.01 to loose 32 cents of my €3 profit.
My reason for this was to cover a photo finish. If it did come to a photo, from my experience using betfair, Bolt would have been backed at 1.01 and I’d be guaranteed €2 profit no matter what happens. No Chance of a photo chance! This man for me has to be one of thee best sportsmen of ‘all’ time. Seriously! I watched him in the olympics. I also bet on him and he is an absolute phenomenon! He just glides down the track like it’s the easiet thing in the world! There’s always a risk in track and field betting with injury, false starts and of course drugs, so there’s chance you can loose a large stake here in the hope of getting a very small profit! But I took action to increase my bankroll and it’s paid off in a big way! After Sean’s loss on Tiger, this €3 will be an extra thorn in his side! It’s up to Sean to do the chasing now! The pressure is on him to to pull off some great bets.
This left my balance at €37.11 and I staked 11 cents on Rory McIlroy at 250/1 in the golf with 9 holes gone. If he made a charge in the back nine and the leaders slipped, I could have profited big with a lay. It didn’t happen that way, no biggie! I now have €37.00 of a balance and I’ve stormed ahead of Sean. Even if Tiger did come through for him, I wouldn’t have batted an eyelid. I’m playing my own game, and I’d be making the same bets!
Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €30.77
Bet this week: €38.10
Bet this month: €62.90
Current Balance: €37.00
Profit/Loss (week): €6.23 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €17.00 profit
The week started poorly for me. I started it with two consecutive days of losses and that was almost followed by a third, but my fortunes started to pick up again. Gradually, my balance started to rise again and i won back everything i lost.
But yesterday was a real hammer blow for me and i’m now just €1.94 in profit for the month. I’m also in 2nd place behind Enda and it feels like i have to start all over again… week 4 is going to be very interesting. I MUST turn a profit and ideally i’d like to hit the €30. That will leave me with a chance of getting back up in to the €40 mark before the month ends…
I would have said at the start of the month, a balance of €37.39 would be more than enough to scoop victory. But now, i’m not so sure. Enda has bet little, but won big. I’ve bet big and won bigger. Just over €6 separates the two of us at the minute.
I probably haven’t done enough to seal victory yet, but at this stage, it’s still mine to lose. You won’t see me banking on anything or risking much if that €6 gap remains intact… but you will see me try to rack up a few cents here and there with smart, solid bets.
I’ll be happy to finish week 3 with €40. But i’ll be just as happy if my balance stays the same and Enda’s shrinks
Is it all just luck? I don’t think myself or Enda are particularly lucky. When we place so many bets in a week and both have an ROI of over 50%, it can’t all be down to luck
I know i’ve been unlucky in some of my lost bets and i know i’ve also been lucky with injury time goals for example. I think, over time, luck and bad luck evens itself out.
Earlier this week, Sean asked me in the comments section of this post did I think United were worth a bet of odds of 2.98 in the 2009 Community shield:
August 6, 2009 at 1:20 am
what about the community shield? fancy utd in normal time? 2.98 the odds right now…
here was my answer (with a few typos ):
August 6, 2009 at 10:28 am
@sean: honestly, i’d say no! but it’s worth a go with those odds. Chelsea are strong and will be and Ancelotti will be looking to make a big first impression, what about 0-0 and penalties? Wasn’t overly impressed with United last night, solid enough and got the result but we were saying we might need a bit more in the middle for Europe.
Apart from the scoreline I called it exactly right! United’s odds drifted out to 3.25 just before the match today. I was going to leave betting but I did fancy Chelsea so I went for it with a bet of €2.36 at odds of 2.58. I fancied Chelsea to be ahead in this match in the dying moments but you never know with United and late goals. As soon as I backed Chelsea I layed them at 1.1 for €7.
This meant I was loosing 70 cents if Chelsea went ahead and stayed ahead until the end. This was great discipline plus a good bit of luck. I didn’t watch the game as I went to bed with a sore head and how glad am I that I made this decision after Wayne Rooney had an injury time equaliser!
It worked out perfectly! I made my decision, went off to sleep as I had a sore head and there was no messing about thinking about when to lay Chelsea. I figured at 1.1 my lay would have been picked up in the last 2 or 3 minutes. Loosing 70 cents was a fair chunk of my profits on this bet but if I’d have been greedy then I’d have got nothing! So that rockets me over the €30 mark and into the lead for the first time (and my sore head is gone too ). Sean may get some profit in this match too as he voted for a draw in the poll that he set up for this match. But with his past record of trying to trade out of bets he could have got burned with that late goal! He may also have some profit in the golf later today so my lead may be short lived!
This has been an excellent week for me, I’m delighted too that I got this result on the Community Shield, but even if I didn’t my balance would have been €24 so I’d have been happy.
Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €19.85
Bet this week: €18.50
Current Balance: €30.77
Profit/Loss (week): €10.92 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €10.77 profit
I think Sean was banking on calling this competition over if he passed the €30 mark this weekend, he’s been on at me to bet more but I was waiting for the right bets. Hopefully I’ve proved this week that it isn’t going to be as easy as he thought to pull away from me (that’s assuming I’m not in the lead this evening). Next week might be a quiet enough week for me as I’m heading off to Liverpool. I’ll definitely be back with some bets before the Premier League kicks off and should have some videos or pics from Old Trafford to share after my visit there for the opening game of the season against Birmingham!
Although we only started off on august 1st, the first week is officially over and i’ve taken an early lead.
Opening Balance: €20.00 (well technically€19.71 but i’ll forget about that)
Bet this week: €33.25
Current Balance: €22.78
Profit/Loss (week): €2.78
Profit/Loss (month): €2.78
So it’s a case of so far so good for me. I hope to extend my lead this week and edge towards the €30 mark. I’ve learned a few new tricks recently too so i’ll be putting them in to action in order to shield myself from heavy loss.
This is gambling, and you don’t win without taking risks, so i’m well aware that my luck will run out at some stage. For now however, i’ll enjoy being in pole position for August. The pressure is all on Enda to make a comeback…