Posts Tagged ‘patience’

discipline the key to success

August 28th, 2009

Whilst it’s all very well and good placing bets, there is risk attached to every single bet i place.

It was always my intention to race ahead of Enda early in the month and then drop anchors and wait for him to catch up.

Spreeblicks Fail-Anchor
Creative Commons License photo credit: derSven ¶

That puts a lot of psychological pressure on him because when he’s placing bets, he’ll know in the back of his mind not only does he have to profit, he has to catch up with me and so if he happens to lose bets, he might get desperate for profit and lose his composure.

So right now, my discipline is being tested. For me, it’s simply a case of not betting until Sunday or Monday when august ends and when i see how Enda has got on trying to catch up.

I’m hoping Enda will bet and lose this weekend or not move at all. I have a big enough cushion to feel safe. I know that he MUST place bets and realistically he must gamble at relatively large odds to win.

Even if he was to put his entire bank of €41 on a 1.35 shot, it wouldn’t be enough to secure victory. So he’s under pressure to find value bets and make sure they win.

I have the luxury of watching what happens to Enda along with you guys. 20 of you have backed him to win for whatever reason, so if he loses, he’ll not be the only one with egg on his face :mrgreen:

Dropped €2 yesterday

August 20th, 2009

At half time in the Burnley – Man Utd match last night I had a €2 bet on United to win when they were 1-0 down at odds of 2/1. Sean got burned big by laying a bet and if I’m totally honest I considered a Burnley lay too but thought better of it. You’ll see my predictions for the midweek games didn’t go well as I only called 3 out of 6 correctly.

burnley_manutd_betting

United were behind and missed a penalty already but I still thought they could come back. Make no mistake I didn’t think this would be a walk over and I did say that it would be interesting to see if United could score at least 2. They aren’t looking good so far for me and I think Fergie needs to get in to the transfer market before the deadline! I cannot believe that Michael Carrick hit the penalty with Owen and Rooney on the pitch but I was still prepared to back United after the miss.

Matt Le Tissier called a Burnley win on Sky Sports, and Paul Merson told him he should be in a straight jacket! Le Tissier was right, and I wonder did he have a wee punt on them? As far as I remember Burnley were trading at 17/1 before the game yesterday. If either myself or Sean had €2 on this it would have been a massive haul for one of us :) . That’s the kind of bet that could win this monthly challenge! After timer :)

€2 is a big drop for me here, but Sean also fell back yesterday so it’s not a disaster. He was way behind two days ago and did really well to comeback with massive wins on Arsenal on Chelsea. I fully expected Sean to get back from the €15 down and I’m never one to count my chickens. He’ll probably take the lead after today again, as I fully expect for him to go for it from now on. It wont surprise me at this stage if he’s nearer €100 than €50 at the end of the month. As far as I’m concerned for now though, he has €5 to climb back again and I’ll be sitting tight until I see a bet that I like. Sean will be going all out to win this, he might win big or he could lose big but I’ll be keeping my discipline and waiting to see if he can try and seal it before making any big bets! He’s confident he can do it and claim ‘his’ number 1 spot so I’m happy enough to let him take center stage. I’m the big underdog here! If Sean passes the €45 mark I’ll have to make a move then but until then I’m having a look round to see what’s about there.

Patience pays off

August 8th, 2009

I mentioned that I had a couple of bets in the 2009 Bridgestone Invitational a couple of days back. I initially backed Justin Leonard in this at odds of 49/1, hoping he’d push up the leaderboard and I planned to lay him off at smaller odds then. He’s a good player and was in the top 20 in this tournament last year. He also showed well in the 2009 British Open tying for 8th place so I thought it was worth a bet. I then backed Boo Weekley at 210/1, he’s a player that ‘can’ push up the leaderboard so I was going in with the same strategy with him. Weekley was sitting at 3 under par after 7 holes in the 3rd round and was trading at 85/1 so I was hoping he could grab another few birdies and give me some value. He had a shocking time from then on and like Leonard, now seems to be out of the running. I’m now writing both these bets off as losses as I can’t see either player featuring going forward. The lays below shown in pink are unmatched.

Bridgestone_Invitational_Leonard_Weekley

Now for the good stuff! I had 4 football bets between yesterday and today, 2 losses and 2 wins. The important thing here though was that the losses were small and the wins were big (relatively speaking). I lost on both Reading and West Brom in the Championship. Both these teams were pretty short odds (around even money) but I expected both to win and I went in with the strategy if one wins I get my money back, if both win I double my money. Unfortunately both teams drew so I lost a euro there.

Football_winnings

Earlier this evening, my first real big bets came through for me. I bet €2 on Dungannon Swifts away to Institute in Irish Premier League at odds of 2/1 and profited €4. It was a 90th minute penalty that came through for me, but they all count. I’d been waiting on this one as I placed the bet early on Friday morning. Institute released a lot of players over the Summer and I heard they are also injury hit at the minute, so this was a value bet going for Dungannon at 2/1.

The next monster (by my standards :) ) of €4.28 was lumped on Waterford United away to Kildare County in the League of Ireland 1st Division. Were my bet on Dungannon had real value, the odds on this one was low at 1.56, but I sat down and analysed these matches with 2 good friends of mine on Thursday night and we all agreed that this one was ‘thee’ bet to go for this weekend. Look where Kildare are in the League Table and Waterford are riding high, pushing for promotion. I was down to €14 before these bets settled up and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried. If both these bets didn’t come in, I would have found it very difficult to catch Sean. But for now, I’m back in the game! I expect Sean to go further ahead as he seems to be sitting well in the golf with Tiger and Padraig Harrington, but I’m back in business and I’ve shown that my patient approach has paid off (at least this time anyway). New balance = €26.36, result! I’ve now bet over the €20 quota for the month, maybe that’ll do me for August :)

No bets for me today

August 4th, 2009

When Sean posted this morning saying he was risking €8.68, I immediately decided to stand back and not bet today. Yes he might storm into the lead if it comes off but I wasn’t sure about any of the matches today. I probably would have gone for Maccabi Haifa if I was backing any but I am glad I didn’t. I am hoping Sean did back them though as they went three down and he might have tried to lay his way out of trouble at this point! In saying that, he’s been very strategic so far and I won’t be surprised if he went for some kind of draw/no bet strategy.

275/365 Examination
Creative Commons License photo credit: stuartpilbrow

Anyway, enough of the second guessing, I’m just checking back in to let you know I’m still patient even though I might have fallen further behind today. I’m sure we’ll find out when Sean posts later tonight or tomorrow. If I am further behind, then I’ll need to pull a great bet out of somewhere and I’ll need to guarantee a big return on investment. For now though, I’m happy to play a waiting game until I see something that I really fancy!

Tonight’s results in the Champions League 3rd Round qualifier were:

  • Maccabi Haifa FC 4 – 3 FK Aktobe
  • Sivasspor 3 – 1 RSC Anderlecht
  • NK Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 2 FC Salzburg
  • Panathinaikos FC 3 – 0 AC Sparta Praha
  • FC Twente 1 – 1 Sporting Clube de Portugal
  • ** Update – Sean posted about 20 seconds after me – he’s won again! 4 in a row – he’s flying – I might need to bet big tomorrow :) yeah right!

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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