I’ve been very very quiet on the site all week. Sean has been egging me on to bet, but I found it hard to find a low risk strategy that would give me a high reward. I’ve said I was the underdog and I’m still behind, but I’ve passed the €50 mark for the first time and I’m within touching distance now.
If I lost this bet today I would have been in trouble. I’ve threatened to go for a monster bet and had an even money shot in mind but decided against it. It would be ridiculous to blow my €30 profit just to beat Sean. I can live with being second as long as I’m in profit, I’m not sure he can Who’s to say that with another winning bet tomorrow though that I can’t bypass Sean?
Here’s my selection for today:
I placed a multiple bet on the last 3 selections in yesterday’s tips (Man City, Everton and Aston Villa, all to win). I’ve been lucky as Everton got an injury time penalty but you need luck and I’ve had my fair share over the last few weeks. Unfortunately you cannot see a screenshot of a multiple bet in Betfair after it’s been settled (so just a note for next time to take a screenshot when I place the bet). After the first two results came in I layed Villa in separate bet shortly after half time at 1.27.
This lost me 1.62 of my profit but it insured I’d be up no matter what and I wasn’t taking the risk on a 3 way bet. Even if Fulham came back to snatch victory, with my €6 lay I’d have been up over €3. I’ve said before that “accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off” so I’m chuffed with today’s result! I’m 100% honest when I say that I was actually not going to bother betting this weekend and just be happy with second place and doubling my money! However, now that I’m within touching distance of Sean I will be going for it tomorrow. I think the only time that I really reacted to his bets this month was placing a massive €30 on Usain Bolt. I profited about €3 on this bet but it was silly to risk my entire kitty too. Since then I’ve decided to become much more disciplined and I’ve been consistently winning since. I still have a massive mountain to climb but I’m a lot closer than I was this morning. Sean has been cautious since going way ahead of me and rightly so. It’s not like he hasn’t went for it all month so he deserved the break. He won’t ‘have’ to bet tomorrow but as he wont know what I’m up to all day (and I’ll be in the blind as to what he’s up to also), he’d be foolish to assume I won’t be going for broke. Sean has the advantage of being more cautious with his selections tomorrow, were I’ll have to take a more risky approach. I’m sure you’d agree after watching us over the last month that this is a real turnaround in styles. Sean doesn’t have to be cautious though and he may take a big risk to put it beyond me even if I win big tomorrow. We have completely contrasting styles and it makes it interesting to see if we change styles on the final day to seal the deal. I have a monetary target in mind for tomorrow and it’s enough above Sean’s current balance that even if he does win it’ll have to be a decent amount. Hopefully my luck continues and I can make a decent stab at it anyway. I’ll be posting at around 11.45 tomorrow night with my final balance. I have to say, I’m very very surprised that we’re both sitting here on a balance of more than €50 with one day to go. Until one or both of us can consistently profit over a six month period, it would be stupid to say that we are winning punters just yet.