I ended November 2009 with a balance of €0.00. At the weekend i placed 5 x €1 footie accumulator bets but none came in. Typical. I also blew my 25c betfair balance, but that was to be expected…
So yet again, we’ve both lost money last month. Enda claims his third successive victory which means it’s 3-1 to him in the head to head monthly battles.
I’ll be changing my tactics yet again this month though in a bid to pull things back..
In the last 4 days, i won back everything i lost on the liverpool match and went past the €40 mark. I then gambled about €10 of it, lost it and placed a banker bet on John and Edward not being in the bottom two last week.
It was always my intention to do that as i believed they were one of the best supported acts. Anyway, they did end up in the bottom two so i lost my entire bank….
Bar 20c. My balance in betfair on Sunday evening was 20c. You might think 20c is nothing, but i’ve managed to turn it in to €4.20 
John and Edward were about 1.1 to go when it was announced they were in the bottom two on the x factor. Last week i played a similar bet and layed against the favourite to go – i did the same this time around and layed John and Edward going with my entire 20c.
They ended up staying to my delighted which meant i profitted by €2. On Monday evening, i then placed that €2 on the liverpool / birmingham match finishing 2-2. I got odds of 2-1 with 10 minutes to go and it was 2-2 at the time, so i thought it was decent value.
The match did indeed finish 2-2 so my balance is now €4.17. A remarkably comeback from just 20c and if i can go on to get back in to profit (above €20), it’ll be the ultimate great escape…
Anyway, check out the bets i placed and lost / won over the past few days…
I had placed €4 in to betfair games before the liverpool match so that’s why my account starts off as €13.40 – really it was €17.40. I then transferred the €4 back in to my account and you can see that in the first image…
Anyway, the mother of all comebacks is now on the cards…
Having built up a healthy profit over the past few days, i decided to go for it and really try to wrap things up this month.
I stuck €10 on a lay of the draw at half time in the lyon / liverpool match.
photo credit: anothersaab
It finished 0-0 at half time, so i lost about €12. Eager to win it back, i backed liverpool at about 3.3 with €5 and that looked good, but lyon struck in the 90th minute to level it at 1-1 and leave me another €5 short.
So in total, liverpool cost me over €17 last night, but i could afford to lose it… my balance is down to €17 now on betfair, but i’m still pretty confident about November.
What goes up must come down, but it’s all about timing and so far i’ve finished every month relatively strongly…
Last weekend i placed €1 on an accumulator. I had Utd, City and Roma to win – they all failed to win so that bet went horribly wrong for me but i was glad in a way – most of my accumulator bets end up narrowly losing (i.e. 2 of my 3 teams win and the other draws).
I’ve been pretty busy this month and following a huge loss on my first bet this month, i’ve almost thrown in the towell. I’ll be relying on small bets and big wins to get back in to it this month and with the clock against me and a poor record with small bids at big odds, i can’t see how Enda will be defeated this month…
That said, i’ll be placing some well thought out accumulator bets over the next few days…
Yesterday i bet my entire €20 betfair balance on Rosberg winning the overall qualifying session for the Brazilian grand prix. Why? Because it was tipped by a lot of professionals & racing experts that it was too dangerous to continue qualifying and that drivers would be lined up on the grid according to their best times (they’d finished session 1 and were in session 2 when this happened).
photo credit: Yuya Tamai
So Rosberg was in pole position at this point and the odds started to crash to about 1.25. The rain was pouring down, drivers were out of cars, team bosses were doing TV interviews, pundits were saying it was too dangerous to race etc… it all seemed too point to the fact that qualifying would be canceled for the rest of the day.
So i stuck €10 on rosberg at about 1.8…. i then stuck €5 on him at about 1.5 and i said to myself “well sure i may as well go all in now” and stuck the last €5 on him at about 1.3. I would have won €10 had the race been canceled which would have been a smart ’steal’ given the fact i wasn’t betting on sport – i was basically betting on weather and conditions not improving.
My money looked safe for quite some time – the safety car went out 3 times for test laps and 3 times came back and said ‘too wet’… it was looking good. The qualifying session was turning in to the longest in history and the odds kept falling.
Then a hammer blow. The gray sky began to break on the horizon and they decided to restart qualifying which i knew meant KO for me. Other drivers came close but failed to beat his time… for a few laps i thought my luck might be in but then as things drew to a close, rosberg’s time was smashed a few times.
So that’s me bankrupt on betfair.com for the minute. My €20 balance has been destroyed and for the first time ever, it’s looking like one of us will finish the month in the red here on lucky.ie. I still have 4 x €1 accumulator bets to place on paddypower so i’ll be determined to try and place smart bets there – i can’t afford to lose any more!
It could have been another good night, but it wasn’t to be. First of all, i thought about laying Andy Murray in his match against Cilic in the US Open. I felt it was getting to the stages where he just can’t justify his odds…
I think he was about 1.09 to win or something like that. I had intended laying the crap out of him like i’d done a couple of weeks ago, but i didn’t think he’d lose the match, so that’s why i held off.
I was going out and knew i’d miss the first set or two so i felt that would be no good to me in terms of trading, so i didn’t bet and needless to say i was angry with myself.
I did bet on Ireland again though. This time, betting against them at half time. Ireland are never comfortable with a lead against ANYONE so it was worth the risk. I layed €20 against them at 1.33, meaning i’d lose over €6 if they held on to win.
They did win and i lost my money. On a sidenote, South Africa are one of the poorest host nations i’ve ever seen so i’ll probably be laying them every match they play next summer in the world cup as home advantage will probably distort their odds.
So i slipped under the €50 mark last night, but i played a bit of poker in college to win some back plus i finally got that promotional €5 credited to my account so i close the day with a balance of €56.56 on betfair (€60.73 overall).
So a loss, but nothing huge – i said i wouldn’t be taking massive risks and i’ve stuck by it. I can still afford to lose a good bit and not really get worried. For the sake of entertainment, i probably will continue to gamble but with caution. I’ll be happy just to beat last month’s total as i’m pretty sure it will be good enough to seal victory yet again for me this month!
I’ve a habit of losing money, then winning more instantly. It happened again yesterday.
I backed Utd to beat wigan… €10 on odds of 1.65. I won €6.50. However…. i also layed against 9 corners or less. There was 8 in the match, meaning i lost €11.25.
So overall, i was down €4.75 for the day. I won €1.50 on a falkirk / hibs scottish match and i was feeling confident again so i backed over 2.5 goals in an ipswich / west brom match. At half time, it was 1-1 and i decided to stick with my bet.
The match finished 1-1 so now i was in trouble. In total, i’d lost €8.50. I turned to tennis.
Andy Murray went in as favourite against Roger Federer in their Cincinnati Masters match. Rather strange i thought, but i wasn’t complaining as i was confident federer would take him easily. He did… Federer won in straight sets.
In total, i backed federer with €10 at 2.08 and another €5 at 1.96. After he won the first set, i layed off a bit to profit a total of €11.25.
So that left me at +€2.75 for the day. My balance is now €37.43. It isn’t enough to protect my no.1 spot though.
Enda is now past the €40 mark for the first time. It’s incredible how he’s managed to win so much by betting so little. I’ll be expecting to pull away from him this week though. This will be our last full week in august, so we’ll both have to go for it and keep a close eye on each other’s progress. At the minute, it’s looking like a balance of €50+ will be required to seal victory, but that can all change with one big win or loss.
2 nights ago, i layed burnley winning 1-0 and lost €15. Last night, the same thing happened with Roma.
It was 1-1 when i layed against 5 goals. I bet €5 and i’d lose €14.95 if 5 goals went in. The match ended 3-3 and i lost €14.95.
Burned for the second time in as many days. My balance was down to just over €16 now… So i banked on Dinamo Zagreb beating Hearts at 1.49.
I was confident this was a banker and even mentioned it to Enda in an email, but i hadn’t intended betting on it. My hand was forced by that massive €14.95 loss. If i got this wrong and zagreb didn’t win, my balance would have been €0 and i’d have been out of the competition for August.
So, temporarily, my balance was down to €0. Of course Dinamo won comfortably (4-0), my bank was never in danger 
so i won over €8 back to leave my balance sitting on €24. It begs the question why don’t i do that more often!
I make it look like lays are a bad way of betting but they’re actually the easiest imo… i’ve just had a really bad streak of luck.
If you get them wrong, they can go massively wrong as i’ve proved… the stakes are very high so it’s a really risky strategy laying at relatively high odds.
At one stage tonight Roma were about 1.03 to lay, so had i bet 90c on them not winning i would have won €30… that’s where lays can work really well. But obviously with hindsight it’s easy to pick winners
So another big loss today but i halved it by gambling big. I did place another big bet yesterday right after my win with Dinamo Zagreb. Boca Juniors to beat Velez at even money. I stuck €10 on it.
Boca went 1-0 up after 3 minutes so i was immediately in the driving seat with this bet. I could have greened out for about €4 profit straight away but didn’t – i was confident Boca would win. Boca then hit the post and had another shot trickle past the same post – all within the opening 20 minutes.
I’d done my homework on this one and thought it was a relatively safe bet as Boca had a good pre season plus they made some smart signings. They were up against the league champions though so this was by no means a banker. Ordinarily i wouldn’t have put €10 on it, but i was eager to get back past the €30 mark…
I layed Boca at 1.38 at the start of the second half which meant i effectively had a free bet on Boca and stood to win €6.20 if boca held on for victory. They conceded a late 80th minute goal which meant i didn’t win anything… but i didn’t lose either 
I also won about €5 in total on a few tennis matches to leave my balance for the day sitting at €29.88. So i basically won back the majority of a €15 loss yesterday. Overall, i lost a bit for the day, but it felt like victory
At half time in the Burnley – Man Utd match last night I had a €2 bet on United to win when they were 1-0 down at odds of 2/1. Sean got burned big by laying a bet and if I’m totally honest I considered a Burnley lay too but thought better of it. You’ll see my predictions for the midweek games didn’t go well as I only called 3 out of 6 correctly.
United were behind and missed a penalty already but I still thought they could come back. Make no mistake I didn’t think this would be a walk over and I did say that it would be interesting to see if United could score at least 2. They aren’t looking good so far for me and I think Fergie needs to get in to the transfer market before the deadline! I cannot believe that Michael Carrick hit the penalty with Owen and Rooney on the pitch but I was still prepared to back United after the miss.
Matt Le Tissier called a Burnley win on Sky Sports, and Paul Merson told him he should be in a straight jacket! Le Tissier was right, and I wonder did he have a wee punt on them? As far as I remember Burnley were trading at 17/1 before the game yesterday. If either myself or Sean had €2 on this it would have been a massive haul for one of us . That’s the kind of bet that could win this monthly challenge! After timer
€2 is a big drop for me here, but Sean also fell back yesterday so it’s not a disaster. He was way behind two days ago and did really well to comeback with massive wins on Arsenal on Chelsea. I fully expected Sean to get back from the €15 down and I’m never one to count my chickens. He’ll probably take the lead after today again, as I fully expect for him to go for it from now on. It wont surprise me at this stage if he’s nearer €100 than €50 at the end of the month. As far as I’m concerned for now though, he has €5 to climb back again and I’ll be sitting tight until I see a bet that I like. Sean will be going all out to win this, he might win big or he could lose big but I’ll be keeping my discipline and waiting to see if he can try and seal it before making any big bets! He’s confident he can do it and claim ‘his’ number 1 spot so I’m happy enough to let him take center stage. I’m the big underdog here! If Sean passes the €45 mark I’ll have to make a move then but until then I’m having a look round to see what’s about there.
This time last week, my balance was at €37.39. Yesterday, temporarily, i surpassed that and had a balance of over €40.
Today, however, my balance is back down to €21.94 following a HUGE loss on tiger woods.
The week started poorly for me. I started it with two consecutive days of losses and that was almost followed by a third, but my fortunes started to pick up again. Gradually, my balance started to rise again and i won back everything i lost.
But yesterday was a real hammer blow for me and i’m now just €1.94 in profit for the month. I’m also in 2nd place behind Enda and it feels like i have to start all over again… week 4 is going to be very interesting. I MUST turn a profit and ideally i’d like to hit the €30. That will leave me with a chance of getting back up in to the €40 mark before the month ends…
Here were my posts last week;
And here’s my stats
Who'll win in December?
Total Voters: 3
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