Posts Tagged ‘discipline’

discipline the key to success

August 28th, 2009

Whilst it’s all very well and good placing bets, there is risk attached to every single bet i place.

It was always my intention to race ahead of Enda early in the month and then drop anchors and wait for him to catch up.

Spreeblicks Fail-Anchor
Creative Commons License photo credit: derSven ¶

That puts a lot of psychological pressure on him because when he’s placing bets, he’ll know in the back of his mind not only does he have to profit, he has to catch up with me and so if he happens to lose bets, he might get desperate for profit and lose his composure.

So right now, my discipline is being tested. For me, it’s simply a case of not betting until Sunday or Monday when august ends and when i see how Enda has got on trying to catch up.

I’m hoping Enda will bet and lose this weekend or not move at all. I have a big enough cushion to feel safe. I know that he MUST place bets and realistically he must gamble at relatively large odds to win.

Even if he was to put his entire bank of €41 on a 1.35 shot, it wouldn’t be enough to secure victory. So he’s under pressure to find value bets and make sure they win.

I have the luxury of watching what happens to Enda along with you guys. 20 of you have backed him to win for whatever reason, so if he loses, he’ll not be the only one with egg on his face :mrgreen:

August 2009 – Wk4 Review – Enda

August 23rd, 2009

I began the week with a loosing bet on the Premier League champions Manchester United who lost 1-0 away to Burnley. This was a brilliant result for Burnley and a bad start to the week for me.

Incidentally, my first winning bet of the week was on another United game, when they won 5-0 away to Wigan. I put €4.90 on United and layed the bet of at odds of 1/10 to guarantee a profit. I made some predictions on the Premier League games and this was one that I followed through on with a bet. On the same day, I dropped 10 cents on another attempt to back small and lay big to secure a big profit.

I followed my success on United with a bet on Cardiff city at home to Bristol City. Again, I used a cautious approach and layed the bet off at lower odds after Cardiff took the lead. I won €1.68 here and this got me back to a decent level of profit for the week. At this stage I was up €1.90 and I was happy that I was able to come back from my loss on United earlier in the week.

My final bet of the week came on a game in the German Bundesliga. I backed Hamburg away to Wolfburg at odds of 4.3. Hamburg went 2-0 after 7 minutes and I was able to guarantee a win of at least €0.96. Hamburg won the game though, and I won €3 on this game.

Here’s my bets for the week:
Loosing €2 on United
Getting back on level terms by backing United to win
Hitting profit for the first time by backing Cardiff
€3 win on German Bundesliga match

bets_review_week4

Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €37.00
Bet this week: €14.14
Bet this month: €77.04
Current Balance: €41.57
Profit/Loss (week): €4.57 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €21.57 profit

€4.57 might not be a massive win but it’s 32% profit on my stake for the week. Considering I layed off all my winning bets, my return on investment could have been much higher. Will this stop me laying off? Absolutely not, if I could profit 32% every week I’d be very very happy to lay off every bet. My low risk, cautious strategy has paid off for the 3rd week in a row. Sean is willing to put a lot more of his kitty on the line and is probably the favourite to win at this stage, but I’ve now doubled my €20 bankroll for the month so far and I’ll be continuing with this approach this week.

Dropped €2 yesterday

August 20th, 2009

At half time in the Burnley – Man Utd match last night I had a €2 bet on United to win when they were 1-0 down at odds of 2/1. Sean got burned big by laying a bet and if I’m totally honest I considered a Burnley lay too but thought better of it. You’ll see my predictions for the midweek games didn’t go well as I only called 3 out of 6 correctly.

burnley_manutd_betting

United were behind and missed a penalty already but I still thought they could come back. Make no mistake I didn’t think this would be a walk over and I did say that it would be interesting to see if United could score at least 2. They aren’t looking good so far for me and I think Fergie needs to get in to the transfer market before the deadline! I cannot believe that Michael Carrick hit the penalty with Owen and Rooney on the pitch but I was still prepared to back United after the miss.

Matt Le Tissier called a Burnley win on Sky Sports, and Paul Merson told him he should be in a straight jacket! Le Tissier was right, and I wonder did he have a wee punt on them? As far as I remember Burnley were trading at 17/1 before the game yesterday. If either myself or Sean had €2 on this it would have been a massive haul for one of us :) . That’s the kind of bet that could win this monthly challenge! After timer :)

€2 is a big drop for me here, but Sean also fell back yesterday so it’s not a disaster. He was way behind two days ago and did really well to comeback with massive wins on Arsenal on Chelsea. I fully expected Sean to get back from the €15 down and I’m never one to count my chickens. He’ll probably take the lead after today again, as I fully expect for him to go for it from now on. It wont surprise me at this stage if he’s nearer €100 than €50 at the end of the month. As far as I’m concerned for now though, he has €5 to climb back again and I’ll be sitting tight until I see a bet that I like. Sean will be going all out to win this, he might win big or he could lose big but I’ll be keeping my discipline and waiting to see if he can try and seal it before making any big bets! He’s confident he can do it and claim ‘his’ number 1 spot so I’m happy enough to let him take center stage. I’m the big underdog here! If Sean passes the €45 mark I’ll have to make a move then but until then I’m having a look round to see what’s about there.

No bets for me today

August 4th, 2009

When Sean posted this morning saying he was risking €8.68, I immediately decided to stand back and not bet today. Yes he might storm into the lead if it comes off but I wasn’t sure about any of the matches today. I probably would have gone for Maccabi Haifa if I was backing any but I am glad I didn’t. I am hoping Sean did back them though as they went three down and he might have tried to lay his way out of trouble at this point! In saying that, he’s been very strategic so far and I won’t be surprised if he went for some kind of draw/no bet strategy.

275/365 Examination
Creative Commons License photo credit: stuartpilbrow

Anyway, enough of the second guessing, I’m just checking back in to let you know I’m still patient even though I might have fallen further behind today. I’m sure we’ll find out when Sean posts later tonight or tomorrow. If I am further behind, then I’ll need to pull a great bet out of somewhere and I’ll need to guarantee a big return on investment. For now though, I’m happy to play a waiting game until I see something that I really fancy!

Tonight’s results in the Champions League 3rd Round qualifier were:

  • Maccabi Haifa FC 4 – 3 FK Aktobe
  • Sivasspor 3 – 1 RSC Anderlecht
  • NK Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 2 FC Salzburg
  • Panathinaikos FC 3 – 0 AC Sparta Praha
  • FC Twente 1 – 1 Sporting Clube de Portugal
  • ** Update – Sean posted about 20 seconds after me – he’s won again! 4 in a row – he’s flying – I might need to bet big tomorrow :) yeah right!

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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