Posts Tagged ‘champions league’

Bad start to the month

December 8th, 2009

Last night I put a bet on a danish football match. I backed 0-0 at a stake of €2 hoping to lay it off for a few percent profit at half time. Immediately the home team scored. I then backed the home team to win at a stake of €4 also hoping to lay it off later and not to long after this the away team equalised:

danish_footballl_betting

Not the smartest bit of betting in the world and it was more trying to get in to a bit of profit and I didn’t really do my homework. So first action for the month and I’m €6 down :(

I really fancied Real Madrid tonight though and lumped €13.39 on them at odds of 2.36. This stood to profit me over €18 and I was chuffed when Ronaldo put them ahead early in the game. I was hoping to lay this around half time and ensure a profit. Marseille equalised before I got the chance to do so but I didn’t panic. I placed a lay in for Madrid to ensure a profit of €12.36 (before Betfair commission)

banking_on_madrid

if Real went on to win and at 3-1 up with only a few minutes left I’m hoping I’m up around €6 for the month as opposed to being down €6 this time last night :)

last accumulator of the month

September 29th, 2009

Today i placed my final accumulator bet on paddypower.com. It’s on tonight’s champions league matches.

champs league accumulator

I’ve backed Arsenal, Barcelona and Inter Milan to win tonight. If they do, i’ll get over €2 back. Fail to win and i’m down €1.

Enda has already thrown in the towel this month and conceded defeat for the second month on the trot.

It means it’s 2-0 to me in the monthly head to head battles and tonight’s result doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

I’ll probably finish the month with over €70 which is an incredible tally and one that i’m gonna struggle to top next month.

1st day of losses

August 5th, 2009

Today, Celtic cost me €7.26. They won 2-0 away from home in europe, against all the odds…

Car accident
Creative Commons License photo credit: Matti Mattila

My plan of backing Dinamo Moscow and then laying them in play never worked out… they never looked like winning and once they went behind, Celtic were still the more threatening…

celtic dinamo moscow

So now my back was against the wall… that had effectively wiped out my entire profit to date and i wasn’t happy to leave it at that for the day!

I scrambled around looking at other matches and then i gambled big time… at one stage my balance stood at just €6.62…

By the end of all other matches, i’d won €7.20, lost €2.44, so turning a profit of €4.76. It means i lost just €2.50 today overall which i’m actually very happy about. It could have been much, much worse.

balance 5th august

The lead has been cut back by Enda, without him having to lift a finger today, but it still feels like a profit day for me as i managed to work my way out of what could have been a major loss.

I’m still in the lead, still favourite and still €4.76 in profit overall. This was my first day of losses and my 5th day of betting. It had to happen some time and i’m just glad i managed to keep the loss to a minimum…

Easy money tonight? History says yes.

August 5th, 2009

Celtic face Dinamo Moscow tonight. They’re 1-0 down and need to win in Moscow to qualify for the Champions League group stages. They haven’t won an away match in europe for 6 years. 18 attempts. Lost 17, drew 1.

amikor királyok voltunk.
Creative Commons License photo credit: tutuka

Moscow are favourites to quality but are only 2.26 (on betfair) to win the match tonight which makes them very good value in my opinion. I’m not going to give away my betting strategy on this one, but here’s what my head is thinking right now…

Dinamo Moscow beat Man Utd in the super cup last year and looked like a solid side. A couple of weeks ago they beat celtic in celtic park (no mean feat) and more than held their own. They’re also half way through their domestic season so they’re much fitter than Celtic. They don’t have a great record in europe or in their domestic league for that matter but i wouldn’t hold history against them as i’d hazard a guess this is their golden crop of talent coming through.

They’ll play for the 0-0 of course – they don’t need to win and their odds reflect that. But they will try to nick a goal on the counter and are capable of doing so against a weak Celtic side.

I’m still not confident of laying Celtic (despite their dreadful away record), but i can see this ending in a draw and with a tense finish.

Backing big on Moscow at 2.26 and laying them in-play looks like the best bet. Or, if you’re feeling lucky, the draw at 3.4 also seems good value.

We’ll see how right i get it later on tonight… maybe i’ll take my own advice above, mabe i won’t… but perhaps Enda should start listening to my words of wisdom this time around… i don’t want to leave him further behind me after tonight :mrgreen:

Could this be the day i hit the €30 mark and wrap this contest up for august? If current form is anything to go by, ‘yes’ is the answer. I’m looking for my 5th consecutive day of profit!

I also think €30 will be enough to seal victory this month. It would be a 50% ROI and i can’t see Enda topping it. So if i happen to bet and get past the €30 mark today, i’ll be battening down the hatches for a few days and letting Enda take center stage whilst i take some time to ponder my next move.

4th consecutive day of profit

August 4th, 2009

Today i layed Dinamo Zagreb, Maccabi Haifa and Panathinaikos all winning their 2nd leg Champions League Matches (in an accumulator bet). All were at home but just Panathinaikos needed to win over the 90 minutes to qualify, so i thought it was a smart move laying all 3 collectively (also given the fact none of the 3 had won their away matches). I was right.

august 4th winnings

I wanted to stick €3 on it at odds of 4, meaning i’d risk losing €9 if this bet went against me. I could only stake €2.35 though, so my total liability was €7.05. Later on i placed a further 65c bet on at odds of 3.5.

So in total, i risked €8.68 on 1 of 3 teams not to win. If the bet came good, i’d win €3.

These are the sort of bets that you really don’t want to get wrong. There is no margin for error. Had i got this wrong, it would have wiped out my previous 3 days of hard work and steady profit plus it would have left me €4 euro in the red overall and gifted Enda the lead.

So it was a risky move and a suicidal one to most people given the fact i was well ahead of Enda :-)

Having said all that, this was also a calculated risk and i know that it’s extremely rare 3 home sides will all win 2nd legs in competitive champions league matches over 90 minutes, when all 3 have failed to win their away matches in the first leg.

It started off fantastic… odds on favourites maccabi haifa went 3-0 DOWN in the opening 15 minutes of their match at home. ‘Easy money’ i said to myself… didn’t even matter what happened in the other two matches.

Well, good thing i didn’t lay them outright because Haifa came back, incredibly, to win 4-3. At this stage i was worried – i had analysed all 3 matches before hand and i had placed this in 2nd spot in terms of causing an upset. In my own mind, i had placed the Dinamo / Salzberg match as no.1 in terms of causing an upset. Luckily, i was right… not only did Dinamo fail to win, they lost.

Finally, Panathinaikos won their match 3-0, but i had allowed for that before hand… i was expecting them (more so than the other two favourites to win). So i got my predictions spot on on this accumulator bet, but Haifa pulled off  a shock comeback which turned up the heat on me slightly…

Safe in the knowledge i’d won €3, i also placed two in-match bets in the Panathinaikos match. I bet 50c and lost it, then i bet €2 and won 24c, so i suffered a slight loss there of 26c. I also placed an in game bet in the salzburg match and won 12c…

So in total, a gross profit of €2.70 today. 4th consecutive day of profit. Biggest profit day yet for me. My balance now stands at €27.38.You’d think my luck would run out at some stage, but it’s my job to prove you wrong and keep profiting.

balance august 4th

4 consecutive days of profit can’t be fluked, so i’ve really laid down an early marker this month. Enda is playing it safe and hoping i’ll beat myself but so far those tactics aren’t working and i’m strecthing my lead day by day…

Risking €8.68

August 4th, 2009

Today, i’m doing something very risky – i’m risking €8.68 to win €3. That’s over 33% of my kitty being risked tonight.

Some people gamble as a way to get rich
Creative Commons License photo credit: Melissa Gray

I won’t say exactly what i’m betting on yet but it’s on this evening’s Champions League matches. I’m confident my bet will come good – i’ve done my homework but as we all know there are no such things as sure bets.

*If* this bet pays off, i’ll be up €3 for the day which will be my biggest profit yet and my balance will then stand at over €27.50.

Lose, and my balance goes right down to €16. So there’s a lot at stake and this bet has the potential to wipe out my previous 3 days of profit, plus leave me €4 in the red.

But that’s what gambling is all about… taking calculated risks to win more.

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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