Posts Tagged ‘Betfair’

€200 mark SMASHED!

December 20th, 2009

This is an historic day on lucky.ie. My December 2009 balance stands at a whopping €207.19.

Rage Against the Machine have just been crowned Christmas no.1 and at the time it was announced, i was ‘all in’ on betfair with a balance of around €90. Enda has been destroyed this month and i end 2009 with a bang – earning more this month than my previous 4 months combined.

xfactor bets

It all started on Monday when i backed Joe to win with €50 at 1.27. Had i stuck with that original bet, my balance would now be about €40. But i didn’t. I changed my mind and did so about 10 times throughout the week.

I backed Joe, then backed Rage, then seriously considered redding out on both, then eventually went all in on rage. Crazy stuff. But it worked ;-) In total, i placed 19 bets on this market over 4 days, totalling €248.

I backed & layed for profit, i backed and layed for loss and eventually, to be perfectly honest, i didn’t know how much exactly i was going to win if RATM won. All i knew is that i had everything but €43 involved in this market and once the results were leaked i bet that €43 on Rage at 1.06 (which was obviously great value!).

I had worked out that i should have ended up with a balance of about €150, but couldn’t be sure – i had so many bets on the market that it was just too much hassle to work out exactly what i’d win or lose in different situations. So it was a nice surprise to log in and find my balance at over €200!!!!

At one stage RATM drifted to over 6.4 and you’ll see i placed a few bets at that amount. They never really dropped below odds of 3.00 until this morning when obviously people in the know started getting official figures. A few days ago, i also won a few quid when Everton lost 1-0 to BATE – i’d backed BATE with €5 at 4.7 (great odds) so i won about €14 on that.

dec 17th bets

So a massive win, a great day for me and a great day for lucky.ie – i’ve now set a new record balance and one that i think that will stand for a long time to come ;-) I may have lost the monthly head to head battles with Enda in 2009 (3-2), but after this month, i’ll end the year having earned way more profit :-)

I wonder if Enda will now do a Benitez and claim it’s not over until December 31st ;-) As things stand, there’s ONLY a €200 gap for him to close before the month’s end :mrgreen:

running away with it

December 14th, 2009

Enda’s 3 month winning streak WILL be broken this month and in emphatic style. My new tactical approach to gambling is really paying off and right now my betfair balance stands at €77.34.

december 13th bets

Exactly 14 days ago, it stood at €20. So i’ve almost quadroupled it, with a bit of luck along the way but mainly thanks to discipline, structure and good judgement. My target for the month was to increase my balance by 5% per day, every day.

So far in December, i’ve increased it by almost 10% per day on average. It means i’m now just over €9 short of my target. When i reach my target i’ll be cashing out and banning myself from placing any more bets this month.

almost there

Snooker has proven to be a really strong area for me. In total, i’ve made €41.68 on it in the last 7 days (in the UK open). A large chunk of that was ‘accidentally’ won, but i’ve proven that wasn’t just a fluke by going on to win more with risky tactics.

In tonight’s final however, my tactics would have lost me everything had i been quicker to place a bet. Higgins needed a brown to win a frame and i placed €60 on him to win the frame at 1.02, meaning i’d win €1.20 if it went in. It was a straight forward brown which no professional should ever miss – i could have made it time and time again.

He did miss it much to my horror as my bet was just being processed as the ball bounced around in the jaws of the pocket. Luckily, because it was a ‘dead cert’, the odds shortened to 1.01, so my 1.02 bet wasn’t accepted, leaving me with literally a couple of seconds to cancel the bet… (otherwise it would have been automatically be accepted). Higgins eventually lost the frame meaning a 1.01 shot lost. Proving my tactics aren’t bulletproof.

But i knew that. Gambling is gambling. There are no certainties. The only thing that is certain is that you will lose if you keep gambling. But that’s what we’re trying to prove wrong of course here on lucky.ie.

Provided i hit my target this month, i’ll be in profit and placed hundreds of bets over a 5 month period – so too will Enda – which shows that you can defy the odds…

betting against champions league elite

September 16th, 2009

Last night i layed against Man Utd, Real Madrid, Juventus and Bayern Munich all winning. If one failed to win, i’d win €5.

If all of them had won, i’d lose €22. So it was a risky move but i’d earned the right to bet like this having built up a huge lead over Enda.

  • Utd were away to Besiktas and won 1-0.
  • Madrid beat Zurich 4-2.
  • Bayern Munich beat Maccabi Haifa 3-0.
  • Juventus could only manage a 1-1 draw with Bordeaux :twisted:

So that draw means i claim €5 profit and extend my lead over Enda, plus touch the €75 mark :mrgreen: I didn’t think Utd would win and it took a late goal for them to nick it. I was really banking on the Utd match to go in my favour with, probably, the Bayern match as my next bet. The Juventus match would have been 3rd choice for me in terms of causing an upset and i expected Madrid to win at Zurich.

betfair balance over €70

But, at the end of the day it doesn’t matter what i predicted or how i arrived at my profit – it’s still profit :smile:

I started the month with €25 and i’m now up to €74.91 which is an incredible achievement. Assuming i don’t lose anything, i can cash out €50 for myself at the end of the month… it’s hard work this gambling lark ;-)

I almost feel sorry for Enda this month because despite winning relatively big with 2 accumulator bets, he doesn’t stand a chance of catching me :-) Enda will do well to match his €50 balance of last month. At the minute, €80 should be do-able for me but how tempting is that €100 mark now?!

lost a bit last night

September 9th, 2009

It could have been another good night, but it wasn’t to be. First of all, i thought about laying Andy Murray in his match against Cilic in the US Open. I felt it was getting to the stages where he just can’t justify his odds…

I think he was about 1.09 to win or something like that. I had intended laying the crap out of him like i’d done a couple of weeks ago, but i didn’t think he’d lose the match, so that’s why i held off.

I was going out and knew i’d miss the first set or two so i felt that would be no good to me in terms of trading, so i didn’t bet and needless to say i was angry with myself.

bets sep 9th

I did bet on Ireland again though. This time, betting against them at half time. Ireland are never comfortable with a lead against ANYONE so it was worth the risk. I layed €20 against them at 1.33, meaning i’d lose over €6 if they held on to win.

They did win and i lost my money. On a sidenote, South Africa are one of the poorest host nations i’ve ever seen so i’ll probably be laying them every match they play next summer in the world cup as home advantage will probably distort their odds.

So i slipped under the €50 mark last night, but i played a bit of poker in college to win some back plus i finally got that promotional €5 credited to my account so i close the day with a balance of €56.56 on betfair (€60.73 overall).

So a loss, but nothing huge – i said i wouldn’t be taking massive risks and i’ve stuck by it. I can still afford to lose a good bit and not really get worried. For the sake of entertainment, i probably will continue to gamble but with caution. I’ll be happy just to beat last month’s total as i’m pretty sure it will be good enough to seal victory yet again for me this month!

It’s all over for september!

September 7th, 2009

I’ve started September all guns blazing and destroyed Enda in these opening few days. He’s gonna need a miracle to get back in to it this month.

Freeze !!!
Creative Commons License photo credit: Philippe sergent

Feeling invincible, i stuck €10 on Harrington to win the Deutsche Bank Championship when he was tied at 15 under for the lead. As soon as i placed that bet, his odds tumbled and kept going out and within a few minutes he was down to 13 under and 2 shots off the pace… that quickly chopped me back down to size and reality…

I could have accepted a €10 loss – i could afford it after all… but i didn’t want to :-) Instead, i attacked and got more involved. I placed €6 on Stricker to win which would net me €11.76. Everyone was tussling at the top for no.1 spot and i then backed Stricker again with €5 at 2.52, meaning i’d net another €7.60 profit.

golf sean

So at this stage, i’d bet a total of €21 on either Stricker or Harrington winning (and harrington was out of it – or so i thought). Harrington mounted a small comeback but eventually fell off and Stricker kept cool to seal victory by 1 shot on the last hole.

So it means i bagged €9.36 profit AFTER i’d lost my €10 on Harrington :mrgreen: My betfair balance is now €57.57, with €5 still to be added from a special offer. I now go a massive €33.78 clear of Enda and that will stretch to €38.78 later in the week.

My balance now tops €60 and i’ve set a new all time record balance on lucky.ie – although there’s still over 3 weeks left in September, i’m walking up the steps and have one hand on the ‘player of the month’ trophy for September.

So far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest Enda can mount a comeback of this magnitude. It’s up to him now to prove us doubters wrong :smile:

So first day over and done with, and things ran smoothly for me. Now i have to do it all over again tomorrow with, get this, a 3 hour gap between classes :evil: I’m all for breaks and stuff, but that’s madness. 3 hours of doing nothing only wanting the time to tick by :roll: This is when i start to regret not living on/near campus :razz:

Win in LA Championship Tennis

August 6th, 2009

I had a ‘massive’ bet by my standards of €2.98 today. Jeez I’ve lost the run of myself all together! I was looking at a 3rd round ladies tennis match in the LA Championship between Anna Chakvetadze (world ranking 54) and Agnieszka Radwanska (world ranking 13). I saw that Radwanska was 4-1 up in the first set and was trading pretty low at 1.17, I had a look at the form of both players and although Chakvetadze was 2-0 up in the previous head to heads between these two, Radwanska has had a considerably better run over the last 5 tournaments, reaching the Quarter Finals of Wimbledon during this period. I backed Radwanska to win the match and profited €0.51. I came through with a win here but in hindsight I might have been a bit hasty here and could have got better odds on Radwanska, a 17% return wasn’t brilliant and if I’d have waited another few minutes I could have nearly doubled this as the match went back to 4-4 games each in the same set. Ah well, a win is a win and I’ll try not to rush in as much next time.

betfair_tennis_la_open_060809

On top of this I had another sneaky bet of 18 cents at big odds (which I’ll come back to later along with my first bet this week of 15c). Sean has been pretty open with his bets and publicly came out yesterday and nearly convinced me to lay Celtic with this post, but I’d prefer to keep stum with the kind of bets I’ve been looking at. To abide by the rules of the competition, I’ll have to disclose them though when the market is in play or finished up. Both bets are still in play but if I honest I’m not convinced I’ll get much play out of either. Time will tell! So that’s €3.16 bet today with a profit of 30 cents, it was 33 cents but Betfair took 3 cents commission and I have 2 bets currently in play. Check out my stats for August on the top right of the page to see how my running totals are looking.

A few small losses on the gg’s

August 5th, 2009

In my earlier post, I said that I didn’t ‘think’ that I’d have another bet today. I thought wrong :) I had a wee punt on a couple of horse races this afternoon. In the first race I layed two favourites to place in an 8 horse race. If either finished outside the top three then I was up either 13 cents or 11 cents, guess what? They finished 1st and 2nd. So I ended up losing 33 cents in total on that race.

betfair_horse_racing_050809

I then had a punt on a 5.4/1 shot, placing 25 cents on it in the hope that I’d come out with €1.35 profit. No good here either… I wonder is it still running? Anyway, that’s a loss of 62c for both races, hardly a disaster but I’m dissapointed that I ate in to my poker profit from early this morning. The second bet was perhaps a bit silly but I definitely thought there was a bit of value in experimenting with the first bet/s. These small bets are a bit of craic, I’m not taking the same risks as Sean and I’m not profiting as much as him but I’m a lot less open to a big loss. So that increases the amount I’ve bet by 62c and decreases my profit by 62c. I’m still €0.98 in profit and I’ve bet €11.80 so far.

I did look at the football today also. Fair play to Sean for coming out with his prediction on the Celtic game! He sold it well and he nearly had me convinced of a Celtic lay, but I thought better of it. He was wrong today, but his thinking was good and he took a previous match between the sides last year into account, which was good research. I didn’t fancy anything in tonights matches. I’m actually late with this entry as I went out to watch the Man Utd v Valencia which finished 2-0 to United. Michael Owen should have had at least 2, if not 4, it’s good to see him getting the chances anyway! If I’m honest I actually thought there was a bit of value in Valencia at 5/1 on Betfair but I didn’t go for it… phew! Anyway, another day, another dollar…

Loosing, then Winning at Poker

August 5th, 2009

Last night I sat at a 2cent/4cent no limit cash table in the hope of making a swift buck. I sit down at the table with 50cents. I dont play the first 3 or 4 hands as I get nothing cards. Then I’m dealt AK off suit. I raise pre-flop to 12 cents, a decent size raise you would think in a game like this, but a guy goes all in (he had about $2.50). This guy has been betting at every pot with nothing so I have to call. Flop comes 10, rag, rag – so he’s hit a pair of 10’s. Turn comes, I hit a King so I’m ahead, river comes, he hits a 6 for a 2 pair. So I’m down 50 cents in dollars, that’s 35 cents in euros. I’m gutted that I’ve fallen another 35 cents behind Sean as I know he’s had his fourth day of profit in a row. I go to another 2/4 table with a dollar this time (€0.70) and I play a few hands. No good cards, then I get A9 and I’m on the big blind anyway, so I check. Board flops A97 so I’ve hit! What happens next? I loose my connection and that’s the end of that. I lost another 14 cents, not a nightmare but that’s €0.49 that I’m down for my nights play. That’s the end of me and cash games for now! See the transactions highlighted in red. If you’re wondering why my balance is up an extra €4 on the right hand side, it’s because I forgot I had a bet in play before starting the competition.

betfair_poker_040809

I get up early today and I decide to play a $2+$0.20 Super Turbo NL Hold’em sit and go tournament. I get a few decent cards and I play well. I get to the last 2 and gain the chip lead but I’m then beat into 2nd place when the other guy draws a straight. I lift $5.40 for my $2.20 investment and I’m back ahead! I took €2.58 to the tables in total and I come out with €4.31 so that’s a total profit of €1.73. My new balance stands at €21.59 and I’m officially ahead of my €20.00 monthly kitty for the first time. If it goes wrong at the poker table this morning I loose €1.53 for the day on top of the 49 cents last night, but I was confident! If I did win the $2.00 + 20 game, I’d be up another €2.55 and would have closed the gap on Sean. It wasn’t to be. I don’t ‘think’ I’ll have another bet today. If I spend too much time at this, I might stop enjoying it! I also got feedback from Betfair on posted videos of my poker sessions, I’ll have an update on this later.

Sports betting: first winning day

August 3rd, 2009

I see that I got two votes on the Poll today, so thanks to both of you if you’re reading back again! It might not mean a lot in terms of actually winning, but I appreciate the vote and the fact that someone (or two) is actually following our online betting challenge.

I had a bet on a longshot this morning that I blogged about earlier. My balance after that bet was 19.70, it’s now gone up to 19.86 after a small win on the horses. I actually bet on two races, lost the first and profited on the second. With a current exposure of 15 cents from this morning’s bet I’m actually in profit for the first time :) 19.86 + 0.15 = €20.01. If I loose the 15 cents I’m still down but while it’s in play it’s my money.

Anyway, the bets I placed today where an absolute joke! I had two 10 cents bets :)

betfair_horses

After a quick look at the form guides I backed a 15/1 shot that traded at around 5/2 during the race and finished 3rd. If this comes in I profit 1.50 for a very small stake, so it’s worth a punt. My second bet was on the favourite, Start Me Up, at the 5.35 at Cork. This came in at odds of 2.65/1 (my first winning bet, not including the poker tables) so I’m up 26 cents for this race, minus the 10 cents loss from the previous race I’m up 16 cents for these two bets.

Right, I know you’re thinking I’m the smallest punter of all time, but I’m just betting like this to practice my discipline and slowly increase the amount I bet this month, this now stands at €6.87. Sean admitted in his previous post that he thought about backing Dublin in the All Ireland Quarter Final at Croke Park today. I’m not after timing here but I did actually think that he might go for Dublin and with a large punt too, so I was bidding my time to see how he ended today, I thought he’d loose :) ! I said a couple of days ago that I thought Kerry where worth a punt at 7/5 even though I thought a draw was likely. I avoided the game anyway and was hoping Sean would drop a few quid on it. He’s increased his lead today again, fair play, but I’m back to where I started. It’s like I never made a bet, like I’ve never lost a bet :) Sean’s running ahead but I’m not bothered, it’s the 3rd of August not the 23rd, the big bets will come later! He’ll be hard to catch though, I know he’s a determined man, you don’t blog almost daily for over 3 years without a determined streak!

Week 2 – Enda’s first bet

August 3rd, 2009

I had a sneaky bet this morning. Another small risk big pay off bet off 15 cents which is only 0.75% of my starting bankroll. At odds of 49/1, I get payed €7.35 if this one comes in. This would be a great ROI for a very small risk. Eventually I’ll get payed on one of these, and it’ll be worth it if it happens sooner rather than later. Saying something like “eventually I’ll get payed on one of these” may sound like mug punter strategy and maybe it is, but I’ve studied previous form in this event and I think 49/1 is a value bet. I’ll be laying the bet off at just over 2/1 so if my runner shows well in the event so that I green out even if my selection looses.

secret_bet_blank

I wont be revealing this bet (I’ve removed my selection from screenshot above) until after the result of this event comes in. When the event finishes, I’ll give a run down on why I thought it was a value bet! For now I’ll walk away and leave it, I thought it was good value and I won’t give it a second thought until the bet is in play.

Sean is still ahead but he had to work hard yesterday to get his money back after an initial loss. Looking at his bets, he could have got burned quite badly yesterday. It was interesting to see how we both approached the Arsenal v Rangers differently yesterday, I walked away from it when I was beat and Sean fought back for his money. Sean was going to get payed big with his initial lay of Arsenal of €5 and I was going to get payed big for a small bet on Rangers if they came through. Although Sean has the draw to cover himself too I wouldn’t have layed Arsenal. If I’m honest I thought Arsenal would win the game (about 3 outta 4 times), but I thought Rangers were decent value at 8/1, especially after both teams played the previous day. However, after some hard work, Sean got payed, I didn’t! His tactic worked, mine didn’t!

You’ll see we’ve added a Poll over on the right to see who you think will come out top this month? Sean is leading 3-0 (obviously he’s voting for himself every time he has a spare second :) ). Feel free to drop myself or Sean a vote (no registration needed) as we welcome all feedback and comments on this site.

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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