pure luck

December 9th, 2009 by sean Leave a reply »

Sticking to my new tactical approach, i tried placing several bets at 1.02, 1.03 today on snooker. I was just too slow placing them though and missed them.

So i thought i’d be clever and then placed a big €30 bet at 1.01 on Ronnie O Sullivan to win the 4th frame in his match against Peter Ebdon. I didn’t realise that when i confirmed the bet, it would be accepted at current odds (of 1.61), not at my odds (which were 1.01).

I thought that if i placed a bet at 1.01, the bet would be accepted if the odds fell to 1.01. If they didn’t fall to that, i’d get my money back. But i quickly learned that’s not how betfair works!!! I hit ‘confirm’ and the bet was accepted at odds of 1.61 – so the bet was accepted before the frame had started!! Disaster!

I didn’t have the liquidity to back out of it (as i’d place €30 of my €31 balance on this bet) and so had to watch from behind my fingers as the frame developed. I’d started this post before i knew the outcome of the frame because i suspected i’d lose – it would be typical.

O Sullivan won the first 3 frames of the match and was cruising, but it would have been typical if he’d lost the 4th frame just when i’d placed a banker bet on him (by accident). At one stage, Ebdon was about 1.25 to win the frame and i thought i was screwed… but thanks to honest sportsmanship (Ebdon called foul as he hit a red when leaning despite the fact nobody seen it) O Sullivan eventually went on to win.

dec 8th bets

So it means i profited by a huge €18+ on that frame alone which of course i’ll take all the credit for :mrgreen: I can say that i had anticipated O Sullivan winning, so that’s why i backed him rather than Ebdon but really, it was pure luck and i’m just relieved not to have lost anything – my tactics had been working superbly up until then and for a while it looked like i’d just shot myself in the foot and undone all my hard work with one lapse of concentration.
So a valuable lesson learned folks – you can only back at the current odds and can’t schedule bets below them.

I went on to place a few more bets. Won some, lost some and end the day with a betfair balance of €49.77. I do have to share a few tips though… in the lower league matches that were in play tonight i was looking for surefire wins.

So i was looking at live scores and searching for any side that was 2 goals up approaching injury time. I found a few of them and surprisingly, i found two teams that were 2 goals to the good available to back at 1.01 going in to injury time.

It’s hard to call 1.01 ‘value’ but in my opinion, that’s fantastic value. The chances of a side scoring two goals in injury time to draw level are extremely slim. Statistically, a 1.01 shot means it happens 1 in 100 times but i’d guess it happens maybe 1 in 1000 times, if even that.

I look at it as immediate 1% interest. It’s the closest thing to a sure win you’ll get in gambling. Place 100 of them in a month and you’ve just doubled your balance (assuming you win!). The law of averages will eventually catch you out once in a while but provided you’re not betting blindly on 1.01 shots, you shouldn’t get stung too often. I also noticed several value 1.02, 1.03 bets too. All in play and it’s really a case of speed and timing.

I did venture away from my new tactics today, but that was only for a bit of fun – because i was still buzzing from my fluke win earlier in the day :smile: I could probably batten down the hatches now and do ‘an Enda’ but i’m determined to go the whole hog and hit my target of €86.44 this month. Whilst i’ve probably done enough to win, i’m eager to end 2009 in style and beat Enda by as much as possible :smile:

Leave a Reply

  • sponsors
  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

    Loading ... Loading ...
  • Popular Posts
  • Recent Posts
  • Tags