Gamble that didn’t really pay off

August 25th, 2009 by enda Leave a reply »

I left Sean a comment last night saying that I didn’t think I’d be betting until the weekend. I honestly didn’t think I would have a bet and I don’t think there will be any more action out of me until the weekend, but I found a bit of value and decided to go for it.

I placed two bets on tonight’s Irish League matches. I backed Linfield away to Institute and Lisburn Distillery at home to Dungannon Swifts. Here’s the exact bets:

irish_league_soccer_betting

And here’s my thinking behind the bets. I fancied Linfield to win, at odds of 1.57 they weren’t a brilliant price but a few weeks back in this post, I mentioned that Institute lost players over the Summer. I also did a quick check on the BBC Sport NI Website and seen that Institute had a man suspended for this one. I put €3 on Linfield which makes me €1.71 profit if it comes in. For the next match Distillery where pretty high priced (I got them at 3.4) at home to table toppers Dungannon Swifts. Dungannon have won 4 out of 4 games this season and Distillery have lost all 4 games, but look at last season’s league table. You’ll see that Dungannon finished last and Distillery were fourth. So at odds of 3.4 they and at home they were decent value. If neither of these bets come off I lose €4.57 but if either one comes off it covers the loss for the other. If both come off I’m up €5.48. Dungannon were also minus a striker through suspension (more research). Now it all sounds very complex but betting on two games like this where one game offers good value and the other offers a low risk bet to cover the value bet if it doesn’t come off means that all I need is one result out of two to make sure I don’t lose. I thought both teams had a good chance of winning so for me it’s worth the risk. Suppose I could have just lumped on Linfield with a fiver but they’re away from home and anything can happen. Here’s the match results anyway:

linfield_institute_lisburn_distillery_dungannon

After commission, I’m up 5 cents :) for my nights work but the most important thing is I didn’t lose and if Distillery would have sneaked a late goal I’d have been up €5.48. Maybe next time :) at least I got some value for my bet and I’m still over the €40 mark.

If you have an opinion on my strategy and if you think this kind of grouped betting is worth it… or should I just have went all out on Linfield? Feel free to drop me a comment as I’d be glad of the feedback on this one.

1 comment

  1. sean says:

    all out is the best way to go… i done some homework earlier in the month and found that when i backed bets, i was actually winning more of them than i was losing so it made sense for me to up the stakes and those tactics have paid off (although the risk is much higher!).

    bank on arsenal tomorrow night for a quick 36% increase overnight and you’d take the lead ;-)

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

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