Easy money tonight? History says yes.

August 5th, 2009 by sean Leave a reply »

Celtic face Dinamo Moscow tonight. They’re 1-0 down and need to win in Moscow to qualify for the Champions League group stages. They haven’t won an away match in europe for 6 years. 18 attempts. Lost 17, drew 1.

amikor királyok voltunk.
Creative Commons License photo credit: tutuka

Moscow are favourites to quality but are only 2.26 (on betfair) to win the match tonight which makes them very good value in my opinion. I’m not going to give away my betting strategy on this one, but here’s what my head is thinking right now…

Dinamo Moscow beat Man Utd in the super cup last year and looked like a solid side. A couple of weeks ago they beat celtic in celtic park (no mean feat) and more than held their own. They’re also half way through their domestic season so they’re much fitter than Celtic. They don’t have a great record in europe or in their domestic league for that matter but i wouldn’t hold history against them as i’d hazard a guess this is their golden crop of talent coming through.

They’ll play for the 0-0 of course – they don’t need to win and their odds reflect that. But they will try to nick a goal on the counter and are capable of doing so against a weak Celtic side.

I’m still not confident of laying Celtic (despite their dreadful away record), but i can see this ending in a draw and with a tense finish.

Backing big on Moscow at 2.26 and laying them in-play looks like the best bet. Or, if you’re feeling lucky, the draw at 3.4 also seems good value.

We’ll see how right i get it later on tonight… maybe i’ll take my own advice above, mabe i won’t… but perhaps Enda should start listening to my words of wisdom this time around… i don’t want to leave him further behind me after tonight :mrgreen:

Could this be the day i hit the €30 mark and wrap this contest up for august? If current form is anything to go by, ‘yes’ is the answer. I’m looking for my 5th consecutive day of profit!

I also think €30 will be enough to seal victory this month. It would be a 50% ROI and i can’t see Enda topping it. So if i happen to bet and get past the €30 mark today, i’ll be battening down the hatches for a few days and letting Enda take center stage whilst i take some time to ponder my next move.

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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