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Lucky.ie

Two Irish punters go head to head to see who comes out tops

Archive for the ‘Winning’ category

Sports betting: first winning day

August 3rd, 2009

I see that I got two votes on the Poll today, so thanks to both of you if you’re reading back again! It might not mean a lot in terms of actually winning, but I appreciate the vote and the fact that someone (or two) is actually following our online betting challenge.

I had a bet on a longshot this morning that I blogged about earlier. My balance after that bet was 19.70, it’s now gone up to 19.86 after a small win on the horses. I actually bet on two races, lost the first and profited on the second. With a current exposure of 15 cents from this morning’s bet I’m actually in profit for the first time 19.86 + 0.15 = €20.01. If I loose the 15 cents I’m still down but while it’s in play it’s my money.

Anyway, the bets I placed today where an absolute joke! I had two 10 cents bets

betfair_horses

After a quick look at the form guides I backed a 15/1 shot that traded at around 5/2 during the race and finished 3rd. If this comes in I profit 1.50 for a very small stake, so it’s worth a punt. My second bet was on the favourite, Start Me Up, at the 5.35 at Cork. This came in at odds of 2.65/1 (my first winning bet, not including the poker tables) so I’m up 26 cents for this race, minus the 10 cents loss from the previous race I’m up 16 cents for these two bets.

Right, I know you’re thinking I’m the smallest punter of all time, but I’m just betting like this to practice my discipline and slowly increase the amount I bet this month, this now stands at €6.87. Sean admitted in his previous post that he thought about backing Dublin in the All Ireland Quarter Final at Croke Park today. I’m not after timing here but I did actually think that he might go for Dublin and with a large punt too, so I was bidding my time to see how he ended today, I thought he’d loose ! I said a couple of days ago that I thought Kerry where worth a punt at 7/5 even though I thought a draw was likely. I avoided the game anyway and was hoping Sean would drop a few quid on it. He’s increased his lead today again, fair play, but I’m back to where I started. It’s like I never made a bet, like I’ve never lost a bet Sean’s running ahead but I’m not bothered, it’s the 3rd of August not the 23rd, the big bets will come later! He’ll be hard to catch though, I know he’s a determined man, you don’t blog almost daily for over 3 years without a determined streak!

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Posted in Betfair, Betting, Selecting, Winning, by Enda

Tags: Betfair enda first win online betting

3rd consecutive day of profit

August 3rd, 2009

Today i put €2 on Kerry to beat Dublin at odds of 2.08 in the All Ireland quarter-final. They won the match so i profited €2.16

Before kick off, i contemplated sticking €5 on Kerry to win (at odds of about 2.5) and then laying them off during the match. Looking back, obviously i’m disappointed i didn’t do that, but that would have been over 25% of my kitty risked on a single bet which at this stage (3 days in to august) would have been very risky. I must admit, i also pondered placing a €5 bet on dublin at about 1.85 and then laying them during the match… i had anticipated a tight encounter with Dublin to start strong but Kerry to fight back and take it to the wire. In the end, Kerry crushed Dublin from start to finish. So although my prediction was wrong, i bet smart during play and that’s all that matters.

I knew i was beating Enda already so i didn’t want to bet too big on this match. I waited until the match went in-play and Kerry went 1 goal and 2 points up within the first few minutes. I could tell they were in good form and their odds were gonna go down sharply from that point on – i was right. I got in on them at 2.08.

As the match unfolded, Kerry were just blitzing Dublin… i thought about laying Kerry or even backing Dublin to win (at odds of about 10-1) but i held off and i’m glad i did because kerry won the first half by 14 points which was effectively game over at half time.

So i profited €2.16 today and my balance is up to €24.83 – 3 consecutive days of profit. Steady profit. In fact today is my biggest win so far

I’ve made over €5 in 3 days and gotten a 25% ROI on my initial kitty of €20. Really, i should shut up shop now and just watch Enda clutch at straws for the rest of the month

But that wouldn’t be good for this site… the site is all about gambling and betting smart so i’ll continue to bet, even if it means losing money and letting Enda get back in to it. I’m getting to the stage now though were i can afford to lose a couple of €2 bets and still not break sweat.

I see Enda is talking about 49-1 outside bets already and that’s the sort of stuff he’ll need to come good if he’s gonna beat me this month

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Posted in Betting, Winning, by Sean

Tags: all ireland profit win

2nd day of profit

August 2nd, 2009

Today i layed Arsenal and almost immediately i knew i’d lost the €1 i’d risked (they went 1-0 up within a couple of minutes). Disaster. I knew i had to recover and had the ability to recover – i just had to hold it together and not do anything stupid.

So i backed Arsenal to win the first half 2-0 (when they were 2-0 up with about 5 minutes to go). Stuck €2 on it at 1.1. I won 30c.

I then backed ‘3 goals or more’, when two were scored. I put €2 on that at odds of 1.11 and i placed a further €2 on it at odds of 1.22. I won 0.66 when the third goal went in So at this stage i’d basically recovered from the €1 i’d lost by initially laying Arsenal.

I then bet €3 on ‘under 4.5 goals’, with about 13 minutes to play. I then placed another €2 on the same bet at odds of 1.07. At this stage arsenal were 3-0 up with about 7 minutes to play so two more goals were needed if i were to lose my €5 staked. The match finished 3-0 and i won a total of 59c on that bet.

With 1 minute left on the clock i placed €3 on the match to finish 3-0 at odds of 1.1 (which looking back on it were incredibly generous). I won 30c on that bet.

So in total, i won €2.18 (excluding 10c commission), lost €0.99 on the match, adding another €1.19 to my kitty. Earlier in the day i also stuck €2 on Atl Madrid and PSG to finish in a draw at odds of 1.22, so i won another 44c (excl commission).

So i’ve yet to lose money on a football match. I’ve bet on 3, profited on 3. It’s a fairly high risk strategy (placing bets at short odds) and one that will no doubt backfire on me at some stage, but so far so good.

My total balance now stands at €22.78, so i’ve proven my first day wasn’t just a fluke

Enda has pulled it back playing poker… he’s now up to €19.85 (still a 15c loss overall), but i’m still in the driving seat, still in profit and that means all the pressure is still on enda’s weakening shoulders

On a sidenote, i bet €22 today which means i’ve already bet over €33 two days in! Sounds reckless, but it’s not when i’m betting mainly in €2 amounts and not all at once. The main statistic i’m concerned with is my monthly balance. So long as it’s over €20, i’ll be happy and if it’s above Enda’s also, i’ll be delighted

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Posted in Loosing, Winning, by Sean

Tags: losing profit Winning

Gambling on myself

August 2nd, 2009

I needed to get some momentum going today to close the gap on Sean. He hasn’t lost a bet so far and I’m impressed! I’ve done nothing but loose so far, and continued that trend earlier today! I backed Donegal to beat Cork at 7/2 in the hope that I could lay them off in play at 11/10, same idea as my bet on the the Limerick-Meath game yesterday with a similar result. Donegal never got close to Cork after the first 2 minutes! Another loss:

betfair_donegal_cork_aug02

At the same time as this, I placed a very very small bet of 32 cents (only 1.6% of my monthly bankroll) on Rangers to beat Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. I thought Rangers were worth a punt at odds of 8/1, given that both them and Arsenal played yesterday anything could have happened in this two horse race. A return of 2.24 for a stake of 32 cents would have been great. I was hoping that the game would be tight and Rangers would sneak a goal late in the second half. I was wrong, it’s 2-0 Arsenal as I’m writing this and that’s another loosing bet – bar a miracle. That’s four loosing bets on the trot to be exact. Not Good!

betfair_rangers_arsenal

So my balance after both these bets was €16.60. Down €3.40 for the month so far. I was going to leave it at that for the day. I sat down and watched the Donegal match for half an hour and decided I needed to fight back hard and decrease Sean’s lead. I decided to bet on myself on the Betfair poker tables again. I was determined I’d come out ahead and went straight to the sit and go tournaments in the Betfair Poker Lobby. I entered a $2.00 + 20c rake tourney with 9 players, where the top 3 are placed. I didn’t get a card so I couldn’t make a play. When I did go all in, I was ahead in the heads up so I made the right move but I was zapped by a king on the river (I had Ace high the other guy had King high). I finished just outside the prize money in 4th place. So I’m down another €1.56 (that’s 2 dollars 20 cents in euro – the Betfair poker tables operate in dollars). Balance = 15.04! I went to the poker tables determined and I know from experience if I keep my discipline I can turn a profit. I brush off the first game and enter another $2+$0.20 Super Turbo NL Hold’em game. I play my normal game, I get a few good hands this time and I take the $9 (€6.37) for first place. Here’s the details of my GAA losses and my poker winnings:

betfair_poker_winnings

So I’ve got my balance back to €19.85, I’m still down 15 cents for August but I’m back in the game!

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Posted in Betfair, Gambling, Winning, by Enda

Tags: Betfair gaa poker success

sean extends his lead

August 2nd, 2009

Yesterday evening, i bet on the Arsenal v Atl Madrid match. It was a friendly, but Arsenal were at home so i was confident they wouldn’t lose. I didn’t place any bets before kick off, instead, i watched the first 10 minutes and then made my move (i mentioned before i prefer to place bets ‘in play’).

I put €2 on arsenal at 1.31 in what is called a ‘draw no bet’. What that means is that IF the match had ended in a draw i would have got my money back. So rather than back Arsenal at better odds, i played it safe and took this bet. I wasn’t confident Arsenal would win, but i was pretty sure they wouldn’t lose. Arsenal ended up winning 2-1. So i won 62c.

About 30 minutes through the first half, i put €3.50 for the first half to finish with fewer than 1.5 goals. It was 0-0 at the time i placed the bet, so in order to lose, 2 goals would have had to go in in 15 minutes. ‘Unlikely’ i thought to myself.

I got odds of 1.1 on that, and the first half finished 0-0 so i won 30c.

So in total i won 92c on the match, risking €5.50 to get it. It means my balance now stands at €21.29 which means i’m crushing Enda just one day in! I’m already up €3.37 on him which means he’s now gonna be under real pressure to get back in to it.

I started off 29c lighter than Enda,but after one day, i’ve racked up a €1.58 net profit. If i continue in that form, i’m on course for over €45 profit Whilst it’s fun to stick the knife in to Enda while he’s down, i’m well aware that he could gamble on a game of russian roullete and double his money overnight, so there’s always that threat that profiting in small amounts could be blown out of the water if he places a big bet at good odds.

If i keep pulling away at the top, i’m sure he’ll start to play recklessly in a bid to catch up and that’s where i’ll most fear him. So it’s very much a battle of the minds too… we both have to blog openly about our bets and thoughts so even the losers can have a big effect on how the winners play – just by talking and getting in to their minds One thing i know and Enda knows is that we’ll both be reading each other’s posts – therefore we can both influence each other’s bets or style of betting…

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Posted in Study Form, Winning, by Sean

Tags: bye bye enda cruise control extend lead top

sean takes an early lead

August 1st, 2009

Day 1, first bet and it’s gone perfectly.

I backed Spartak Moscow to beat FK Krasnodar at odds of 1.3. I stuck €2 on it.

After 21 minutes, Spartak Moscow took a 1-0 lead and their odds dropped immediately. I then layed them at odds of 1.08 and stuck 3.75 on that.

So at this stage, i couldn’t lose. If Spartak won, i’d be up 75c, if they lost or drew, i’d be up 25c.

So with almost 70 minutes left to play in the match, i could put my feet up and sip cocktails whilst i planned my next move to turn up the heat on Enda…

Spartak ended up winning the match 4-0, so i won 75c. Betfair take commission on all winnings, so i actually got 72c.

It means my kitty has now increased from €19.71 to €20.42 and it also means i’ve taken an early lead this month… the first lucky.ie punter to hit profit.