Archive for the ‘Study Form’ category

Week 2 – Enda’s first bet

August 3rd, 2009

I had a sneaky bet this morning. Another small risk big pay off bet off 15 cents which is only 0.75% of my starting bankroll. At odds of 49/1, I get payed €7.35 if this one comes in. This would be a great ROI for a very small risk. Eventually I’ll get payed on one of these, and it’ll be worth it if it happens sooner rather than later. Saying something like “eventually I’ll get payed on one of these” may sound like mug punter strategy and maybe it is, but I’ve studied previous form in this event and I think 49/1 is a value bet. I’ll be laying the bet off at just over 2/1 so if my runner shows well in the event so that I green out even if my selection looses.

secret_bet_blank

I wont be revealing this bet (I’ve removed my selection from screenshot above) until after the result of this event comes in. When the event finishes, I’ll give a run down on why I thought it was a value bet! For now I’ll walk away and leave it, I thought it was good value and I won’t give it a second thought until the bet is in play.

Sean is still ahead but he had to work hard yesterday to get his money back after an initial loss. Looking at his bets, he could have got burned quite badly yesterday. It was interesting to see how we both approached the Arsenal v Rangers differently yesterday, I walked away from it when I was beat and Sean fought back for his money. Sean was going to get payed big with his initial lay of Arsenal of €5 and I was going to get payed big for a small bet on Rangers if they came through. Although Sean has the draw to cover himself too I wouldn’t have layed Arsenal. If I’m honest I thought Arsenal would win the game (about 3 outta 4 times), but I thought Rangers were decent value at 8/1, especially after both teams played the previous day. However, after some hard work, Sean got payed, I didn’t! His tactic worked, mine didn’t!

You’ll see we’ve added a Poll over on the right to see who you think will come out top this month? Sean is leading 3-0 (obviously he’s voting for himself every time he has a spare second :) ). Feel free to drop myself or Sean a vote (no registration needed) as we welcome all feedback and comments on this site.

sean extends his lead

August 2nd, 2009

Yesterday evening, i bet on the Arsenal v Atl Madrid match. It was a friendly, but Arsenal were at home so i was confident they wouldn’t lose. I didn’t place any bets before kick off, instead, i watched the first 10 minutes and then made my move (i mentioned before i prefer to place bets ‘in play’).

I put €2 on arsenal at 1.31 in what is called a ‘draw no bet’. What that means is that IF the match had ended in a draw i would have got my money back. So rather than back Arsenal at better odds, i played it safe and took this bet. I wasn’t confident Arsenal would win, but i was pretty sure they wouldn’t lose. Arsenal ended up winning 2-1. So i won 62c.

About 30 minutes through the first half, i put €3.50 for the first half to finish with fewer than 1.5 goals. It was 0-0 at the time i placed the bet, so in order to lose, 2 goals would have had to go in in 15 minutes. ‘Unlikely’ i thought to myself.

I got odds of 1.1 on that, and the first half finished 0-0 so i won 30c.

my betfair account statement

So in total i won 92c on the match, risking €5.50 to get it. It means my balance now stands at €21.29 which means i’m crushing Enda just one day in! I’m already up €3.37 on him which means he’s now gonna be under real pressure to get back in to it.

betfair balance 2nd august

I started off 29c lighter than Enda,but after one day, i’ve racked up a €1.58 net profit. If i continue in that form, i’m on course for over €45 profit :twisted: Whilst it’s fun to stick the knife in to Enda while he’s down, i’m well aware that he could gamble on a game of russian roullete and double his money overnight, so there’s always that threat that profiting in small amounts could be blown out of the water if he places a big bet at good odds.

If i keep pulling away at the top, i’m sure he’ll start to play recklessly in a bid to catch up and that’s where i’ll most fear him. So it’s very much a battle of the minds too… we both have to blog openly about our bets and thoughts so even the losers can have a big effect on how the winners play – just by talking and getting in to their minds :smile: One thing i know and Enda knows is that we’ll both be reading each other’s posts – therefore we can both influence each other’s bets or style of betting…

And we’re off!

August 1st, 2009

Enda has already got out of the traps fast and got a few hours head start on me with his first blog post, but this is a marathon, not a sprint ;-)

Unfortunately i’ve already made a big mistake – i deposited €20 in to my account, however i did so using a visa credit card which means betfair took 30c for themselves (1.5% charge). So i’m immeditaely down 30c on Enda with €19.70. For some reason, i have 1c on my account too, so my actual balance as it stands right this second is €19.71.

betfair account

If you use a laser card to deposit funds, there are no charges. I have a laser card, so don’t ask me why i used my credit card… maybe it’s because i know my credit cards details off by heart and it’s just less hassle for me!

Anyway, I’m willing to give Enda a 30c head start – he’s gonna need it by the end of the month :twisted: Enda has his eye on the All Ireland quarter finals and whilst i’m tempted myself, i’ll hold off betting on them.

The only reason i’ll bet on them is if i’m at home, watching TV and they happen to be on – i’ll bet in-play as can read games much better when they’re in play. To start off, i’ll probably place a few small bets at very low odds just to start off and get me above the €20 mark.

Looking at soccer odds (my favourite market), it’s really hard for me to bet on friendlies which is all that there is these days, so you won’t see me risking too much until mid-august when things start getting competitive (in england which is where most of my bets will go).

Any bets i do place though will be blogged about and Enda must do the same. We both HAVE to bet our full €20 at some stage and in order to beat each other, we’re both gonna go for broke… you won’t see either of us happy to break even at €20 for the month…

I’ve never lost a bet!

August 1st, 2009

That’s not 100% true, actually I have lost bets – lots of them, but I had to open my blogs on here with a controversial statement! In a way it is true though as the birth of this site and the competition between myself and Sean is a totally fresh start to online betting for me! As off today, I’m neither a winning gambler nor a loosing gambler, so I’ve never lost a bet! The fact that I haven’t actually won a bet is another story! Until we get this site off the ground I will not be placing any offline bets or any other online bets other than those mentioned on here. I have a €20 online budget and that’s my lot!

So where do I start? Well as this is a new idea and I’m excited about it. I know that I’ll probably find it very hard not to rush in and have a hundred bets tomorrow :) I need to keep the discipline though and try to ensure that I’m getting value out of my €20 over the month of August. Speaking of the €20, here’s a screenshot of my Betfair account with a starting balance of €20 as of 1st of August.

betfair account balance

Last night, I also popped out a book I’ve had for a while, ‘Winning on Betfair for Dummies’. It’s a good wee book and gives a good run through how Betfair works. Betfair is actually pretty simple, but it’s daunting enough to begin with so as part of my effort on here I will try to produce some videos on how to sign up to Betfair and how to use the site and the different types of bets you can place on there.

I’ve been looking at the all Ireland Quarter Final Football matches this weekend, here’s the odds below:

betfair_all_ireland_quarter_finals

I’m tempted to back a draw in the Dublin v Kerry game as I’m guessing it’ll be blown up if there’s a sniff of the side’s being level anywhere near the 70 minute mark. Dublin are going in to this one as favourites, but can you write of Kerry and are they worth a punt at 7/5? I wont be going for this one though for now but can I think it’s worth looking at a draw in one of the four games at odds of 9/1 and above and this for me is the most likely draw. I feel that there ‘might’ be a bit of value in Donegal at 7/2 in the game against Cork, this one might be worth a punt if the Donegal team come with the momentum of victories over Derry and Galway in the previous rounds. I’m probably going with my heart and not my head here and the low odds on Cork will probably be justified. I’ll leave it for now and will wait to watch the games and might place a bet in running depending on how things are going.

Jeez, I feel as though I’m putting my neck on the line with predictions like this on here and it’s only my first post, maybe I a need a new approach already :) But there’s no money on for now and I’ll be back later if I decide to go ahead with any of these bets. Cold or what? No disciplined! :)

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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