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Two Irish punters go head to head to see who comes out tops

Archive for the ‘Study Form’ category

MASSIVE day on sunday

December 19th, 2009

Lets just say that if Rage Against the Machine are crowned Christmas no.1 this Sunday, i’ll have smashed all records on lucky.ie.

photo credit: Valentin.Ottone

If Joe wins, i’m down a good chunk (i’ll have blown a lot of my hard work)… but i’ll still be in profit and i should still easily beat Enda this month now that he’s tried to mirror my tactics and got burned at the first attempt

I have to say that was unlucky. Not sure what the odds were at 3-1 up (under 1.1 anyway) but betting against Celtic, away from home, in europe, when trailing by two goals isn’t exactly a silly thing to do. Had i been watching the match i may well have bet on it myself and i’d have bet the same way Enda did.

So pure bad luck there, but that’s the risk you take when you place every single bet at low odds. It worked this month for me, but as Enda has proven, it can just as easily go wrong

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Posted in Betfair, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: christmas no1 ratm

One last bet

October 1st, 2009

I’ve said a couple of times this week that I was happy enough to finish the month with over €50. I also said during my good run of bets last week that a target of €75 was not beyond my reach. Although I’ve said that I wouldn’t be placing another bet this week, I already had a bet in place since Sunday evening. I backed a six way accumulator on betfair at odds of 8.49 with a stake of €3.10.

Before tonight’s Champions League games I have 3 teams up Man City, Sevilla and Arsenal. Tonight I was waiting on Man United, Real Madrid and Chelsea. I’ve prepared this post early today, if it comes in I might jut have snatched victory from Sean at the last minute if not my balance is €49 (not the €50 I expected before last night’s attempt to gain another €4+. I’m not sure Sean will hold off betting tonight but if he does and doesn’t win and my bet comes in I think I’ll just about bypass him. I won’t be counting my chickens though until I see what happens in tonight’s games. Chelsea, United and Real Madrid are all big favourites but that doesn’t mean anything! Even if this bet does come good, if Sean wins even €1 more than his current balance, he’ll beat me to it anyway. See the outcome below:

*** Update at around midnight:
My 6 team accumulator came good so I profited €22.06 on a €3.10 stake for a total return of €25.16. That leaves my closing balance at €74.16 for the month. That’s a total profit of €49.16 by betting only €41.44. Considering I layed off a lot of money in one night, I could have had an even better ratio than this.

I’ve passed Sean’s starting total for today but I wonder have I done enough? Sean didn’t think I stood a chance so it was a great comeback no matter what happens!

1 comment »

Posted in Betfair, Betting, Competition, Selecting, Strategy, Study Form, Winning, by Enda

Tags: accumulator Betting comeback profit

September 2009 – Week 3 Review – Sean

September 22nd, 2009

This was probably my quietest week ever on lucky.ie. I placed just one bet – a high risk €5 lay against the champions league elite and i gained €5.

I’m so far ahead of Enda it would be foolish of me to play recklessly. I’m delighted with my total of €74.91 so far from an initial balance of €25. If i freeze my betting, i can cash out €50 for myself this month which would be very nice

I still have to place 2 more €1 accumulator bets, but there’s no rush… i’m confident month 2 is over and that i’ll retain my crown as no.1 here on lucky.ie for the second consecutive month.

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Posted in Stats, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: september 2009 week 3 review

August 2009 – Week 4 Review – Sean

August 24th, 2009

Week 3 ended in disaster for me. I lost pretty much everything i’d earned up until then when tiger woods let me down. I said that i must turn a profit this week and that’s exactly what i’ve done. In fact, i’m almost up to the €40 mark again.

It started off with a big win of €9.94 when arsenal beat celtic. I also scooped €7.28 the same night on a Chelsea / Sunderland match. That was followed up by a big €16.62 loss when Man Utd failed to beat Burnley.

My laying has let me down in general so far and i lost a big €14.95 with another lay on a Roma match. That took my balance down to just €14.95 at one stage. However, i immediately fought back to win most of it back.

Andy Murray has helped me twice this week. I layed against him at very short odds, to profit €5 in one match and i backed Roger Federer to beat him later in the week to net me €11 profit. Late last night i also won a few euro on MLS (american soccer). Just a word on the MLS – the standard of football is shocking…. truely awful. So is the commentary.

Anyway, i finish the week with a balance of €39.24. Here’s my stats this week;

Opening Balance: €21.94
Bet this week: €462.70
Current Balance: €39.24
Profit/Loss (week): €17.30 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €19.24 profit

Here were my posts;

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Posted in Stats, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: august profit week 4

mission impossible?

August 17th, 2009

It’s now clear Enda has pulled away from me with a balance of €37. It means he’s over €15 ahead of me with 2 weeks remaining. Get it wrong this week, and i’m out of it.

Enda is now at an all time record high balance, so i doubt he’s gonna risk much, especially when he knows i’ve a mountain to climb to reach his level.

photo credit: perry_maurice

So it’s now up to me to get back in to this and i’m prepared to lose everything now… so expect plenty of big bets and lots of movement with my balance this week.

I already have one big bet placed for this week and if it goes wrong, i’m in trouble. If it goes right (obviously i think it will), i’ll be over the €30 mark again and right back in it.

So the stakes are high now… this is usually when i’m at my best – just after losing big. I’ve come back from losses time and time again this month and i’ll need to do it again if i’m to catch up with Enda and get my no.1 spot back.

By Wednesday, my balance could be €12 or less. It could also be €31 + so i’m really going for it this week. I backed against Celtic winning in the champions league a couple of weeks ago and got burned. Tomorrow night, they’re at home and take on Arsenal. Parkhead is a fortress, particularly on big european nights so it would take a brave man to beat against Celtic tomorrow. I will be betting on the match, but i’ll have to see what stands out for me…

There are other european ties over the next couple of days, but i’m not sure how many will be televised. This weekend we also have another round of premier league ties so there’ll be plenty of opportunities for me there too.

I’m also hoping Enda does me a few favours… his €30 punt on usain bolt was, perhaps, an indication that he’s moving towards a more attacking style of betting – one which up until yesterday, had seen me hold the lead for the vast majority of august so far.

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Posted in Strategy, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: balance catch up impossible

August 09 – Week 3 Review – Sean

August 17th, 2009

This time last week, my balance was at €37.39. Yesterday, temporarily, i surpassed that and had a balance of over €40.

Today, however, my balance is back down to €21.94 following a HUGE loss on tiger woods.

The week started poorly for me. I started it with two consecutive days of losses and that was almost followed by a third, but my fortunes started to pick up again. Gradually, my balance started to rise again and i won back everything i lost.

But yesterday was a real hammer blow for me and i’m now just €1.94 in profit for the month. I’m also in 2nd place behind Enda and it feels like i have to start all over again… week 4 is going to be very interesting. I MUST turn a profit and ideally i’d like to hit the €30. That will leave me with a chance of getting back up in to the €40 mark before the month ends…

Here were my posts last week;

And here’s my stats

Opening Balance: €37.39
Bet this week: €146.42
Current Balance: €21.94
Profit/Loss (week): €15.45 loss
Profit/Loss (month): €1.94 profit

2 comments »

Posted in Loosing, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: loss review week 3

August 09 – Week 2 Review – Sean

August 10th, 2009

Last week, i finished with a balance of €22.78. This was just 2 days in to our little betting competition here on lucky.ie, so a €2.78 profit wasn’t bad at all.

photo credit: nDevilTV

This week though, over 7 days, i’ve made about 6 times that amount. I’ve finished with a balance of €37.39.

I’m still in the lead and despite Enda’s attempts at clawing his way back, i’ve led from day one and every day since

So far, i’ve only finished in the red one day this week. It’s been profit after profit apart from that and for more details on my winnings, check out these posts from during the week;

I would have said at the start of the month, a balance of €37.39 would be more than enough to scoop victory. But now, i’m not so sure. Enda has bet little, but won big. I’ve bet big and won bigger. Just over €6 separates the two of us at the minute.

I probably haven’t done enough to seal victory yet, but at this stage, it’s still mine to lose. You won’t see me banking on anything or risking much if that €6 gap remains intact… but you will see me try to rack up a few cents here and there with smart, solid bets.

I’ll be happy to finish week 3 with €40. But i’ll be just as happy if my balance stays the same and Enda’s shrinks

Is it all just luck? I don’t think myself or Enda are particularly lucky. When we place so many bets in a week and both have an ROI of over 50%, it can’t all be down to luck

I know i’ve been unlucky in some of my lost bets and i know i’ve also been lucky with injury time goals for example. I think, over time, luck and bad luck evens itself out.

Here’s my stats:

Opening Balance: €22.78
Bet this week: €104.93
Current Balance: €37.39
Profit/Loss (week): €14.61 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €17.39 profit

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Posted in Stats, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: profit review week 3

Patience pays off

August 8th, 2009

I mentioned that I had a couple of bets in the 2009 Bridgestone Invitational a couple of days back. I initially backed Justin Leonard in this at odds of 49/1, hoping he’d push up the leaderboard and I planned to lay him off at smaller odds then. He’s a good player and was in the top 20 in this tournament last year. He also showed well in the 2009 British Open tying for 8th place so I thought it was worth a bet. I then backed Boo Weekley at 210/1, he’s a player that ‘can’ push up the leaderboard so I was going in with the same strategy with him. Weekley was sitting at 3 under par after 7 holes in the 3rd round and was trading at 85/1 so I was hoping he could grab another few birdies and give me some value. He had a shocking time from then on and like Leonard, now seems to be out of the running. I’m now writing both these bets off as losses as I can’t see either player featuring going forward. The lays below shown in pink are unmatched.

Bridgestone_Invitational_Leonard_Weekley

Now for the good stuff! I had 4 football bets between yesterday and today, 2 losses and 2 wins. The important thing here though was that the losses were small and the wins were big (relatively speaking). I lost on both Reading and West Brom in the Championship. Both these teams were pretty short odds (around even money) but I expected both to win and I went in with the strategy if one wins I get my money back, if both win I double my money. Unfortunately both teams drew so I lost a euro there.

Football_winnings

Earlier this evening, my first real big bets came through for me. I bet €2 on Dungannon Swifts away to Institute in Irish Premier League at odds of 2/1 and profited €4. It was a 90th minute penalty that came through for me, but they all count. I’d been waiting on this one as I placed the bet early on Friday morning. Institute released a lot of players over the Summer and I heard they are also injury hit at the minute, so this was a value bet going for Dungannon at 2/1.

The next monster (by my standards ) of €4.28 was lumped on Waterford United away to Kildare County in the League of Ireland 1st Division. Were my bet on Dungannon had real value, the odds on this one was low at 1.56, but I sat down and analysed these matches with 2 good friends of mine on Thursday night and we all agreed that this one was ‘thee’ bet to go for this weekend. Look where Kildare are in the League Table and Waterford are riding high, pushing for promotion. I was down to €14 before these bets settled up and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried. If both these bets didn’t come in, I would have found it very difficult to catch Sean. But for now, I’m back in the game! I expect Sean to go further ahead as he seems to be sitting well in the golf with Tiger and Padraig Harrington, but I’m back in business and I’ve shown that my patient approach has paid off (at least this time anyway). New balance = €26.36, result! I’ve now bet over the €20 quota for the month, maybe that’ll do me for August

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Posted in Betfair, Betting, Study Form, Winning, by Enda

Tags: football golf patience Selecting success

Community Shield – who do you back?

August 6th, 2009

Simple question. Man Utd face Chelsea on august 9th in this year’s Community Shield. The past 2 shield’s have gone to shoot outs with Utd winning both.

Over the 90 minutes, if you had money to bet, who would you put it on?

Community Shield 2009

Chelsea (43%, 3 Votes)
Man Utd (43%, 3 Votes)
Draw (14%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 7

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Posted in Selecting, Study Form, by Sean

Tags: community shield poll preview

Week 2 – Enda’s first bet

August 3rd, 2009

I had a sneaky bet this morning. Another small risk big pay off bet off 15 cents which is only 0.75% of my starting bankroll. At odds of 49/1, I get payed €7.35 if this one comes in. This would be a great ROI for a very small risk. Eventually I’ll get payed on one of these, and it’ll be worth it if it happens sooner rather than later. Saying something like “eventually I’ll get payed on one of these” may sound like mug punter strategy and maybe it is, but I’ve studied previous form in this event and I think 49/1 is a value bet. I’ll be laying the bet off at just over 2/1 so if my runner shows well in the event so that I green out even if my selection looses.

secret_bet_blank

I wont be revealing this bet (I’ve removed my selection from screenshot above) until after the result of this event comes in. When the event finishes, I’ll give a run down on why I thought it was a value bet! For now I’ll walk away and leave it, I thought it was good value and I won’t give it a second thought until the bet is in play.

Sean is still ahead but he had to work hard yesterday to get his money back after an initial loss. Looking at his bets, he could have got burned quite badly yesterday. It was interesting to see how we both approached the Arsenal v Rangers differently yesterday, I walked away from it when I was beat and Sean fought back for his money. Sean was going to get payed big with his initial lay of Arsenal of €5 and I was going to get payed big for a small bet on Rangers if they came through. Although Sean has the draw to cover himself too I wouldn’t have layed Arsenal. If I’m honest I thought Arsenal would win the game (about 3 outta 4 times), but I thought Rangers were decent value at 8/1, especially after both teams played the previous day. However, after some hard work, Sean got payed, I didn’t! His tactic worked, mine didn’t!

You’ll see we’ve added a Poll over on the right to see who you think will come out top this month? Sean is leading 3-0 (obviously he’s voting for himself every time he has a spare second ). Feel free to drop myself or Sean a vote (no registration needed) as we welcome all feedback and comments on this site.

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Posted in Betfair, Betting, Selecting, Strategy, Study Form, by Enda

Tags: Betfair secret bet tactics value bet