Archive for the ‘by Sean’ category

2nd day of profit

August 2nd, 2009

Today i layed Arsenal and almost immediately i knew i’d lost the €1 i’d risked (they went 1-0 up within a couple of minutes). Disaster. I knew i had to recover and had the ability to recover – i just had to hold it together and not do anything stupid.

So i backed Arsenal to win the first half 2-0 (when they were 2-0 up with about 5 minutes to go). Stuck €2 on it at 1.1. I won 30c.

I then backed ‘3 goals or more’, when two were scored. I put €2 on that at odds of 1.11 and i placed a further €2 on it at odds of 1.22. I won 0.66 when the third goal went in :smile: So at this stage i’d basically recovered from the €1 i’d lost by initially laying Arsenal.

I then bet €3 on ‘under 4.5 goals’, with about 13 minutes to play. I then placed another €2 on the same bet at odds of 1.07. At this stage arsenal were 3-0 up with about 7 minutes to play so two more goals were needed if i were to lose my €5 staked.  The match finished 3-0 and i won a total of 59c on that bet.

With 1 minute left on the clock i placed €3 on the match to finish 3-0 at odds of 1.1 (which looking back on it were incredibly generous). I won 30c on that bet.

So in total, i won €2.18 (excluding 10c commission), lost €0.99 on the match, adding another €1.19 to my kitty. Earlier in the day i also stuck €2 on Atl Madrid and PSG to finish in a draw at odds of 1.22, so i won another 44c (excl commission).

So i’ve yet to lose money on a football match. I’ve bet on 3, profited on 3. It’s a fairly high risk strategy (placing bets at short odds) and one that will no doubt backfire on me at some stage, but so far so good.

arsenal rangers bet

My total balance now stands at €22.78, so i’ve proven my first day wasn’t just a fluke :-)

Enda has pulled it back playing poker… he’s now up to €19.85 (still a 15c loss overall), but i’m still in the driving seat, still in profit and that means all the pressure is still on enda’s weakening shoulders :-)

On a sidenote, i bet €22 today which means i’ve already bet over €33 two days in! Sounds reckless, but it’s not when i’m betting mainly in €2 amounts and not all at once. The main statistic i’m concerned with is my monthly balance. So long as it’s over €20, i’ll be happy and if it’s above Enda’s also, i’ll be delighted :mrgreen:

sean extends his lead

August 2nd, 2009

Yesterday evening, i bet on the Arsenal v Atl Madrid match. It was a friendly, but Arsenal were at home so i was confident they wouldn’t lose. I didn’t place any bets before kick off, instead, i watched the first 10 minutes and then made my move (i mentioned before i prefer to place bets ‘in play’).

I put €2 on arsenal at 1.31 in what is called a ‘draw no bet’. What that means is that IF the match had ended in a draw i would have got my money back. So rather than back Arsenal at better odds, i played it safe and took this bet. I wasn’t confident Arsenal would win, but i was pretty sure they wouldn’t lose. Arsenal ended up winning 2-1. So i won 62c.

About 30 minutes through the first half, i put €3.50 for the first half to finish with fewer than 1.5 goals. It was 0-0 at the time i placed the bet, so in order to lose, 2 goals would have had to go in in 15 minutes. ‘Unlikely’ i thought to myself.

I got odds of 1.1 on that, and the first half finished 0-0 so i won 30c.

my betfair account statement

So in total i won 92c on the match, risking €5.50 to get it. It means my balance now stands at €21.29 which means i’m crushing Enda just one day in! I’m already up €3.37 on him which means he’s now gonna be under real pressure to get back in to it.

betfair balance 2nd august

I started off 29c lighter than Enda,but after one day, i’ve racked up a €1.58 net profit. If i continue in that form, i’m on course for over €45 profit :twisted: Whilst it’s fun to stick the knife in to Enda while he’s down, i’m well aware that he could gamble on a game of russian roullete and double his money overnight, so there’s always that threat that profiting in small amounts could be blown out of the water if he places a big bet at good odds.

If i keep pulling away at the top, i’m sure he’ll start to play recklessly in a bid to catch up and that’s where i’ll most fear him. So it’s very much a battle of the minds too… we both have to blog openly about our bets and thoughts so even the losers can have a big effect on how the winners play – just by talking and getting in to their minds :smile: One thing i know and Enda knows is that we’ll both be reading each other’s posts – therefore we can both influence each other’s bets or style of betting…

sean takes an early lead

August 1st, 2009

Day 1, first bet and it’s gone perfectly.

I backed Spartak Moscow to beat FK Krasnodar at odds of 1.3. I stuck €2 on it.

all in the green

After 21 minutes, Spartak Moscow took a 1-0 lead and their odds dropped immediately. I then layed them at odds of 1.08 and stuck 3.75 on that.

So at this stage, i couldn’t lose. If Spartak won, i’d be up 75c, if they lost or drew, i’d be up 25c.

So with almost 70 minutes left to play in the match, i could put my feet up and sip cocktails whilst i planned my next move to turn up the heat on Enda…

Spartak ended up winning the match 4-0, so i won 75c. Betfair take commission on all winnings, so i actually got 72c.

It means my kitty has now increased from €19.71 to €20.42 and it also means i’ve taken an early lead this month… the first lucky.ie punter to hit profit.

20.42

Game on Enda :twisted:

And we’re off!

August 1st, 2009

Enda has already got out of the traps fast and got a few hours head start on me with his first blog post, but this is a marathon, not a sprint ;-)

Unfortunately i’ve already made a big mistake – i deposited €20 in to my account, however i did so using a visa credit card which means betfair took 30c for themselves (1.5% charge). So i’m immeditaely down 30c on Enda with €19.70. For some reason, i have 1c on my account too, so my actual balance as it stands right this second is €19.71.

betfair account

If you use a laser card to deposit funds, there are no charges. I have a laser card, so don’t ask me why i used my credit card… maybe it’s because i know my credit cards details off by heart and it’s just less hassle for me!

Anyway, I’m willing to give Enda a 30c head start – he’s gonna need it by the end of the month :twisted: Enda has his eye on the All Ireland quarter finals and whilst i’m tempted myself, i’ll hold off betting on them.

The only reason i’ll bet on them is if i’m at home, watching TV and they happen to be on – i’ll bet in-play as can read games much better when they’re in play. To start off, i’ll probably place a few small bets at very low odds just to start off and get me above the €20 mark.

Looking at soccer odds (my favourite market), it’s really hard for me to bet on friendlies which is all that there is these days, so you won’t see me risking too much until mid-august when things start getting competitive (in england which is where most of my bets will go).

Any bets i do place though will be blogged about and Enda must do the same. We both HAVE to bet our full €20 at some stage and in order to beat each other, we’re both gonna go for broke… you won’t see either of us happy to break even at €20 for the month…

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  • Monthly Stats – December

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €1349.12 - Balance €202.07
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.00 - Balance: €5.12
    Total - Bet: €1350.12 - Balance: €207.19

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €55.98 - Balance: €8.95
    PaddyPower - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €0.00 - Balance: €8.95

  • Monthly Stats – November

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €136.05 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €0.00
    Total - Bet: €141.05 - Balance: €0.00

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €31.88 - Balance: €20.11
    PaddyPower - Bet: €3.72 - Balance: €1.18
    Total - Bet: €35.60 - Balance: €21.29

  • Monthly Stats – October

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €20.00 - Balance: €0.00
    PaddyPower - Bet: €6.00 - Balance: €17.16
    Total - Bet: €26.00 - Balance: €17.16

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €25.68 - Balance: €19.28
    PaddyPower - Bet: €1.28 - Balance: €3.72
    Total - Bet: €26.96 - Balance: €23.00

  • Monthly Stats – September

    Sean
    Betfair - Bet: €141.50 - Balance: €71.91
    PaddyPower - Bet: €5.00 - Balance: €1.17
    Total - Bet: €146.50 - Balance: €72.91

    Enda
    Betfair - Bet: €30.71 - Balance: €62.54
    PaddyPower - Bet: €10.73 - Balance: €11.62
    Total - Bet: €41.44 - Balance: €74.16

  • Monthly Stats – August

    Sean - Bet: €901.57 - Balance: €50.58 Sean Wins!
    Enda - Bet: €89.86 - Balance: €49.95

  • Polls

    Who'll win in December?

    • Sean (100%, 3 Votes)
    • Enda (0%, 0 Votes)

    Total Voters: 3

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