Earlier this week, Sean asked me in the comments section of this post did I think United were worth a bet of odds of 2.98 in the 2009 Community shield:
August 6, 2009 at 1:20 am
what about the community shield? fancy utd in normal time? 2.98 the odds right now…
here was my answer (with a few typos ):
August 6, 2009 at 10:28 am
@sean: honestly, i’d say no! but it’s worth a go with those odds. Chelsea are strong and will be and Ancelotti will be looking to make a big first impression, what about 0-0 and penalties? Wasn’t overly impressed with United last night, solid enough and got the result but we were saying we might need a bit more in the middle for Europe.
Apart from the scoreline I called it exactly right! United’s odds drifted out to 3.25 just before the match today. I was going to leave betting but I did fancy Chelsea so I went for it with a bet of €2.36 at odds of 2.58. I fancied Chelsea to be ahead in this match in the dying moments but you never know with United and late goals. As soon as I backed Chelsea I layed them at 1.1 for €7.
This meant I was loosing 70 cents if Chelsea went ahead and stayed ahead until the end. This was great discipline plus a good bit of luck. I didn’t watch the game as I went to bed with a sore head and how glad am I that I made this decision after Wayne Rooney had an injury time equaliser!
It worked out perfectly! I made my decision, went off to sleep as I had a sore head and there was no messing about thinking about when to lay Chelsea. I figured at 1.1 my lay would have been picked up in the last 2 or 3 minutes. Loosing 70 cents was a fair chunk of my profits on this bet but if I’d have been greedy then I’d have got nothing! So that rockets me over the €30 mark and into the lead for the first time (and my sore head is gone too ). Sean may get some profit in this match too as he voted for a draw in the poll that he set up for this match. But with his past record of trying to trade out of bets he could have got burned with that late goal! He may also have some profit in the golf later today so my lead may be short lived!
This has been an excellent week for me, I’m delighted too that I got this result on the Community Shield, but even if I didn’t my balance would have been €24 so I’d have been happy.
Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €19.85
Bet this week: €18.50
Current Balance: €30.77
Profit/Loss (week): €10.92 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €10.77 profit
I think Sean was banking on calling this competition over if he passed the €30 mark this weekend, he’s been on at me to bet more but I was waiting for the right bets. Hopefully I’ve proved this week that it isn’t going to be as easy as he thought to pull away from me (that’s assuming I’m not in the lead this evening). Next week might be a quiet enough week for me as I’m heading off to Liverpool. I’ll definitely be back with some bets before the Premier League kicks off and should have some videos or pics from Old Trafford to share after my visit there for the opening game of the season against Birmingham!